目的   探讨妊娠期糖尿病（GDM）患者载脂蛋白B（Apo-B）、载脂蛋白A1（Apo-A1）水平在分娩巨大儿中的预测价值。方法   选取2023年1月—2024年1月在珠海市第五人民医院建档并进行孕检、分娩的85例GDM患者，按照分娩的新生儿体质量情况分为分娩正常组55例（新生儿体质量＜4 000 g）和分娩异常组30例（新生儿体质量≥4 000 g）。比较两组孕妇一般资料及孕早期的Apo-B、Apo-A1、Apo-B/Apo-A1比值，采用受试者操作特征（ROC）曲线分析Apo-B、Apo-A1、Apo-B/Apo-A1对GDM患者分娩巨大儿的预测价值。结果   分娩异常组Apo-B水平、Apo_B/Apo_A1比值（1.05±0.15）g/L、（0.81±0.23）］高于分娩正常组（0.95±0.12）g/L、（0.65±0.18）］（t分别为3.357、3.544，P＜0.05）；Apo-A1水平［（1.29±0.26）g/L］低于分娩正常组［（1.47±0.23）g/L］（t=3.292，P＜0.05）；ROC曲线显示，Apo-B、Apo-A1水平及Apo-B/Apo-A1比值预测GDM患者分娩巨大儿的曲线下面积（AUC）分别为0.705、0.660、0.709，灵敏度分别为63.33%、63.33%、66.67%，特异度分别为72.73%、74.55%、76.36%，其中Apo-B/Apo-A1比值预测效能最高（P＜0.05）。结论  GDM患者分娩巨大儿与孕早期Apo-B升高、Apo-A1水平降低密切相关，监测患者孕早期的Apo-B、Apo-A1水平及Apo-B/Apo-A1比值有助于临床对分娩巨大儿进行预测。

      Objective  To explore the predictive value of apolipoprotein B（Apo-B）and apolipoprotein A1（Apo-A1）levels on delivery of macrosomia in patients with gestational diabetes mellitus（GDM）．Methods  From January 2023 to January 2024，85 patients with GDM who were filed in the hospital and received pregnancy examination and delivery were selected．According to the neonatal body mass，the patients were divided into 55 cases in normal delivery group（newborn birth weight ＜4 000 g）and 30 cases in abnormal delivery group（ newborn birth weight ≥4 000 g）．The general data and levels of Apo-B，Apo-A1 and Apo-B/Apo-A1 in early pregnancy were compared between the two groups．Receiver operating characteristic（ROC）curve was used to analyze the predictive value of Apo-B，Apo-A1 and Apo-B/Apo-A1 on delivery of macrosomia in GDM patients．Results  The Apo-B and Apo-B/Apo-A1 in abnormal delivery group were（1.05±0.15）g/L and（0.81±0.23），which were higher than（0.95±0.12）g/L and（0.65±0.18）in normal delivery group（t=3.357，3.544，P＜0.05）．While the level of Apo-A1 in abnormal delivery group，（1.29±0.26）g/L，was lower than（1.47±0.23）g/L in normal delivery group（t=3.292，P＜0.05）．ROC curve showed that the areas under the curve（AUC）of Apo-B，Apo-A1 and Apo-B/Apo-A1 in  predicting macrosomia in GDM patients were 0.705，0.660 and 0.709，and the sensitivities were 63.33%，63.33% and 66.67%，and the specificities were 72.73%，74.55% and 76.36%，respectively．Apo-B/Apo-A1 had the highest predictive efficiency（P＜0.05）．Conclusions  The delivery of macrosomia in GDM patients is closely related to the increase of Apo-B and the decrease of Apo-A1 in early pregnancy．Monitoring Apo-B，Apo-A1 and Apo-B/Apo-A1 in early pregnancy is helpful to predict the delivery of macrosomia．

       目的   探讨脓毒性休克患者肿瘤坏死因子相关受体6 （TRAF6）、胆碱酯酶（ChE）及急性生理学和慢性健康状况评价Ⅱ（APACHE Ⅱ）对预后不良的预测价值。方法   回顾分析2023年2月—2024年3月于某院ICU病区收治的226例脓毒性休克患者的临床资料，基于患者预后情况分为预后良好组（n=151）以及预后不良组（n=75）。回顾226例脓毒性休克患者入院时及治疗后的TRAF6、ChE表达变化，并记录患者APACHEⅡ评分和序贯器官功能衰竭评估（SOFA）评分动态变化；比较并分析两组患者详尽的临床资料，探讨TRAF6、ChE联合APACHE Ⅱ评分之间的关联性以及上述指标对脓毒性休克患者预后情况的临床评估价值。采用Logistic回归来分析对脓毒性休克患者生存状况产生影响的潜在因素。结果   多因素Logistic回归分析，年龄、APACHE Ⅱ评分、SOFA评分、机械通气时间、TRAF6与ChE表达水平均是影响患者预后的独立危险因素（P＜0.05）；受试者操作特征曲线分析显示，年龄、APACHE Ⅱ评分、机械通气时间、SOFA评分、TRAF6、ChE表达水平联合预测脓毒性休克患者预后不良的曲线下面积为0.925，高于单独检测的0.689、0.783、0.794、0.781、0.708、0.827。结论   临床需要及时识别高龄、长时间机械通气时间、高APACHE Ⅱ与SOFA评分、高TRAF6和ChE表达水平的高风险患者，TRAF6、ChE表达水平、SOFA评分、APACHE Ⅱ评分可作为评估脓毒性休克患者预后情况的临床指标，联合应用能进一步提升临床价值。

      Objective  To explore the predictive value of tumor necrosis factor receptor associated factor 6（TRAF6），cholinesterase（ChE）and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II scove（APACHE II）for adverse prognosis in patients with septic shock．Methods  The clinical data of 226 patients with septic shock admitted to the Intensive Care Unit（ICU） of a hospital from February 2023 to March 2024 were retrospectively analyzed，and the patients were divided into a good prognosis group（n=151）and an adverse prognosis group（n=75）based on their prognosis．The expression of TRAF6 and ChE in 226 patients with septic shock was reviewed at admission and after treatment，while the dynamic changes of APACHE  II score and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment（SOFA）score were recorded．Detailed clinical data of the two groups were compared and analyzed to explore the correlation between TRAF6，ChE，APACHE II scores and the clinical evaluation value of the above indexes in the prognosis of patients with septic shock．Logistic regression was used to analyze the potential factors affecting the survival of septic shock patients．Results  Multiple Logistic regression analysis revealed that age，APACHE II score，SOFA score，mechanical ventilation time，TRAF6 and ChE expression levels were independent risk factors for prognosis（P＜0.05）．Receiver Operating Characteristic（ROC）curve analysis showed that the area under curve（AUC）was 0.925，which was higher than single index prediction（0.689，0.783，0.794，0.781，0.708 and 0.827）．Conclusions  High-risk patients with advanced age，prolonged mechanical ventilation，high APACHE II and SOFA scores，and high TRAF6 and ChE expression levels need to be identified in time．TRAF6，ChE expression levels，SOFA scores，and APACHE  II scores can be used as clinical indicators to evaluate the prognosis of septic shock patients．The combined application of those four indicators can further improve the clinical value．

       目的   通过机器学习方法构建脓毒症谵妄患者30 d死亡的预测模型，并识别关键预测因子。方法   采用基于医疗信息集成重症监护数据库（Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV）的回顾性队列研究方法，boruta筛选重要特征，并通过决策树，K近邻，LightGBM，随机森林，支持向量机，XGBoost构建模型进行分析，通过ROC曲线下面积进行评估，利用F1分数、召回率、精确率、特异度、灵敏度和阳性预测值比较模型表现。结果  XGBoost模型在训练集和验证集中的ROC曲线下面积分别为0.906和0.762，表明该模型具有良好的预测能力，入院年龄、红细胞分布宽度和白细胞计数是最重要的预测因子。结论   基于机器学习的脓毒症谵妄患者预后预测模型展现出良好的预测效能，为临床早期干预提供了重要参考依据。

       Objective  To construct a  30-day mortality  prediction model for  patients with  sepsis-associated  delirium using machine learning methods and identify key predictive factors．Methods  A  retrospective cohort study was conducted based on the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV database．Important features were selected using the Boruta algorithm，and models including Decision Tree，K-Nearest Neighbors，LightGBM，Random Forest，Support Vector Machine，and XGBoost were constructed and analyzed．Model performance was evaluated using the area under the reciver operater characteristic（ROC）curve（AUC），along with F1 score，recall，precision，specificity，sensitivity，and positive predictive value．Results  The XGBoost model demonstrated strong predictive performance，with AUC values of 0.906 in the training set and 0.762 in the test set．Key predictors identified included admission age，red blood cell distribution width，and white blood cell count．Conclusions  The machine learning-based prediction model for sepsis-associated delirium prognosis exhibits robust predictive efficacy，providing a valuable tool for early clinical intervention．

目的 探讨振幅整合脑电图（aEEG）联合头颅磁共振成像（cMRI）对早产儿矫正12月龄时神经发育的预测价值。方法 选取110例早产儿为研究对象,并在矫正12月龄时采用Gesell 发育量表评估发育商（DQ）,依据DQ分为Gesell 正常组（DQ≥85,n=83）、Gesell 异常组（DQ<85,n=27）。采集早产儿及母亲临床资料,对比两组出生后72 h内aEEG、矫正胎龄37周时cMRI检查指标差异。结果 两组早产儿及母亲基线资料比较差异无统计学意义（P>0.05）。相较于Gesell 正常组,Gesell 异常组双顶径（BPW）降低[（70.68±5.32）mm vs（66.54±3.69）mm],睡眠-觉醒周期（SWC）不成熟率（20.48% vs 85.19%）、aEEG异常率（30.12% vs 70.37%）、两半球间距（IHD）增高[（2.95±0.83） mm vs（3.56±0.72）mm]（P<0.05）。Pearson相关分析结果显示,DQ值与IHD呈负相关,DQ值与BPW呈正相关（r=-0.361、0.598,P<0.05）。二元Logistic回归分析结果显示,BPW增高是Gesell 异常的独立保护因素（P<0.05）,IHD增高、SWC不成熟及aEEG异常是Gesell 异常的独立危险因素（P<0.05）。结论 早产儿出生后72 h内aEEG异常、矫正胎龄37周时cMRI异常可能提示矫正12月龄时不良神经发育结局。

Objective To evaluate the predictive value of amplitude-integrated electroencephalogram combined with cranial magnetic resonance on neurodevelopment for preterm infants at corrected age of 12 months．Methods A total of 110 preterm infants were selected as study subjects,and Gesell developmental scale was used to evaluate developmental quotient（DQ）at corrected age of 12 months．According to DQ,they were divided into normal Gesell group（DQ≥85,n=83）and abnormal Gesell group（DQ<85,n=27）．Clinical data of preterm infants and their mothers were collected,and the differences of amplitude-integrated electroencephalogram and cranial MRI（cMRI）were compared between two groups．Results There was no significant difference in baseline data between two groups（P>0.05）．Compared with the normal Gesell group,the biparirtal width（BPW）in the abnormal Gesell group was decreased（70.68±5.32mm vs 66.54±3.69mm）,the immaturity rate of sleep-wake cycle（SWC）（20.48% vs 85.19%）,the abnormal rate of aEEG（30.12% vs 70.37%）,and（IHD）（2.95±0.83mm vs 3.56±0.72mm）were increased（P<0.05）．The results of Pearson correlation analysis showed that DQ was negatively correlated with IHD,and DQ was positively correlated with BPW（r=-0.361、0.598,P<0.05）．Binary Logistic regression analysis showed that increased BPW was an independent protective factor for abnormal Gesell（P<0.05）,and increased IHD,immature SWC and abnormal aEEG were independent risk factors for abnormal Gesell（P<0.05）．Conclusions Abnormal aEEG within 72h after birth and abnormal cMRI at corrected age of 37 weeks may lead to adverse neurodevelopmental outcomes at corrected age of 12 months．

目的 探讨转录因子E盒结合锌指蛋白1（ZEB1）、溶酶体相关膜蛋白5（LAMP5）在结直肠癌组织中的表达水平分析及预后预测价值。方法 选取驻马店市中心医院2018年1月—2020年1月收治的120例结直肠癌患者,分别采取所有患者的结直肠癌组织及癌旁组织进行免疫组化染色,对比ZEB1、LAMP5阳性率。对比不同病理特征结直肠癌患者ZEB1、LAMP5表达水平差异。对所有患者进行4年随访,依照随访结果将患者分为2个亚组,即预后不良组（n=35）和预后良好组（n=85）,对比两组患者一般临床特征及ZEB1、LAMP5表达水平,应用Logistic回归分析ZEB1、LAMP5对结直肠癌预后的预测价值。结果 结直肠癌组织ZEB1、LAMP5相对表达量（38.26±5.49、26.77±3.85）与ZEB1、LAMP5阳性率（86.67%、72.22%）高于癌旁组织（15.46±2.54、8.04±1.59、23.33%、15.56%],对比差异有统计学意义（t=41.280,χ²=25.437;t=49.255,χ²=16.071;P<0.05）。不同TNM分期[Ⅰ~Ⅱ期（35.55±4.13）、Ⅲ~Ⅳ期（42.32±4.75）]、淋巴结转移患者[是（44.37±4.28）、否（35.84±3.77）]、肿瘤分化程度[低分化（35.27±4.57）、中高分化（41.34±4.60）]ZEB1相对表达量对比差异有统计学意义（t=-8.281,P<0.001;t=10.746,P<0.001;t=-7.253,P<0.001）;不同TNM分期[Ⅱ期（24.88±3.37）、Ⅲ~Ⅳ期（29.61±2.57）]、淋巴结转移[是（30.72±2.19）、否（25.21±3.19）]、肿瘤分化程度[低分化（24.57±3.62）、中高分化（29.04±2.55）]患者LAMP5相对表达量对比差异有统计学意义（t=-8.254,P<0.001;t=9.227,P<0.001;t=-7.797,<0.001）;预后良好组与预后不良组患者性别、年龄、大体类型、肿瘤大小对比差异无统计学意义（P>0.05）,预后良好组与预后不良组患者TNM分期、淋巴结转移、肿瘤分化程度、ZEB1、LAMP5阳性比例对比差异有统计学意义（P<0.05）;Logistic回归分析显示：淋巴结转移、ZEB1阳性、LAMP5阳性为结直肠癌预后不良独立预测因素（P<0.05）。结论 ZEB1、LAMP5在结直肠癌组织中呈现高表达状态,且与结直肠癌的发生有关,同时ZEB1、LAMP5是结直肠癌预后的独立预测因素,两者有希望成为结直肠癌的治疗靶点。

Objective To investigate the expression levels and prognostic value of transcription factor E-box binding to zinc finger protein 1（ZEB1）and lysosomal associated membrane protein 5（LAMP5）in colorectal cancer tissues. Methods A total of 120 colorectal cancer patients admitted to a hospital from January 2018 to January 2020 were selected．Immunohistochemical staining was performed on the colorectal cancer tissues and adjacent tissues of all patients,and the positivity rates of ZEB1 and LAMP5 were compared．The expression levels of ZEB1 and LAMP5 in colorectal cancer patients with different pathological characteristics were compared．All patients were followed up for 4 years and divided into two subgroups based on the follow-up results,namely the poor prognosis group（n=35）and the good prognosis group（n=85）．The general clinical characteristics and expression levels of ZEB1 and LAMP5 were compared between the two groups．Logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the predictive value of ZEB1 and LAMP5 for the prognosis of colorectal cancer. Results The relative expression level of ZEB 1 and LAMP 5 in colorectal cancer tissues [（38.26±5.49）,（26.77±3.85）] and the positive rate of ZEB 1 and LAMP 5（86.67%,72.22%）were significantly higher than that of adjacent tissues [（15.46±2.54）,（8.04±1.59）,23.33%,15.56%],the contrast difference was statistically significant（t=41.280,χ²=25.437;t=49.255,χ²=16.071;P<0.05）．Relative ZEBI expression levels in different TNM stages [I-Ⅱstage（35.55±4.13）,Ⅲ-Ⅳstage（42.32±4.75）],lymph node metastasis[Yes（44.37±4.28）,No（35.84±3.77）],degree of tumor differentiation [hypodifferentiated（35.27±4.57）,and middle or high differentiated（29.04±2.55）],those differences were statistically significant（t=-8.254,P<0.001;t=9.227,P<0.001;t=-7.797,P<0.001）．The relative expression of LAMP 5 between different TNM stages [I-Ⅱstage（24.88±3.37）,Ⅲ-Ⅳstage（29.61±2.57）],lymph node metastasis [yes（30.72±2.19）,no（25.21±3.19）],degree of tumor differentiation [hypodifferentiated（24.57±3.62）,and middle or high differentiated（29.04±2.55）],the contrast was statistically significant（t=-8.254,P<0.001;t=9.227,P<0.001;t=-7.797,P<0.001）．There were no differences in gender,age,gross type,and tumor size between the good prognosis group and the poor prognosis group（P>0.05）,while there were differences in TNM stages,lymph node metastasis,tumor differentiation degrees,ratio of ZEB 1 and LAMP 5（P<0.05）．Logistic regression analysis showed that TNM stage,lymph node metastasis,ZEB 1 positive,and LAMP 5 positive were independent predictive factors of poor prognosis in colorectal cancer（P<0.05）. Conclusions ZEB1 and LAMP5 are highly expressed in colorectal cancer tissues and closely related to the occurrence and development of colorectal cancer．ZEB1 and LAMP5 are independent prognostic factors for colorectal cancer,and they have the potential to become therapeutic targets for colorectal cancer．

目的 探讨白蛋白-胆红素（ALBI）联合中性粒细胞与淋巴细胞比值（NLR）预测肝硬化合并食管胃底静脉曲张破裂出血（EGVB）的临床价值。方法 回顾性分析2021年1月—2022年12月肇庆市第一人民医院消化内科收治的80例肝硬化合并EGVB患者的临床资料,通过电话及门诊、再入院对其进行为期1年的随访,根据随访结果,将其分为2组,即存活组（n=69）与死亡组（n=11）,分析导致患者死亡的危险因素,并评估ALBI联合NLR预测肝硬化合并EGVB患者死亡的临床价值。结果 死亡组的年龄60岁以上、腹水和肝性脑病者占比,总胆红素（TBiL）、NLR、凝血酶原时间（PT）、谷丙转氨酶（ALT）水平及ALBI评分均高于存活组（均P<0.05）,而血红蛋白（HGB）、白蛋白（ALB）及血钠水平均低于存活组（均P<0.05）;Logtisic回归分析显示,年龄60岁以上、腹水、肝性脑病和TBiL、NLR水平升高及ALBI分级为3级是肝硬化合并EGVB患者死亡的危险因素（均P<0.05）;ALBI联合NLR预测肝硬化合并EGVB患者预后的准确率及灵敏度高于单一诊断,漏诊率低于单一诊断（P<0.05）。结论 肝硬化合并EGVB患者可见ALBI评分及NLR水平升高,而以上两种指标是患者死亡的危险因素,将其联合检测可评估患者预后,预测其死亡风险。

Objective To investigate the clinical value of albumin-bilirubin（ALBI）combined with neutrophil lymphocyte ratio（NLR）in predicting liver cirrhosis complicated with esophageal and gastric varices bleeding（EGVB）．Methods The clinical data of 80 patients with liver cirrhosis complicated with EGVB admitted to the Department of Gastroenterology of the First People's Hospital of Zhaoqing from January 2021 to December 2022 were retrospectively analyzed．They were followed up for one year by telephone,outpatient service and readmission．According to the follow-up results,they were divided into the survival group（n=69）and the death group（n=11）．The risk factors leading to the death of patients were analyzed and evaluated．Results The proportion of age over 60,ascites and hepatic encephalopathy,the levels of TBiL,NLR,PT,ALT and ALBI in the death group were higher（P<0.05）,while the levels of HGB,ALB and blood sodium were lower（P<0.05）．Logistics analysis showed that age over 60,ascites,hepatic encephalopathy,NLR and ALBI grade 3 were independent risk factors for the death（P<0.05）．The accuracy and sensitivity of ALBI combined with NLR in predicting their prognosis were significantly higher than that of single diagnosis,and the missed diagnosis rate was lower（P<0.05）．Conclusions ALBI scores and NLR levels significantly increase in patients with liver cirrhosis complicated with EGVB,and the above two indexes are risk factors for the death,and the combination of them can evaluate the prognosis of patients and predict the death risk．

目的 基于SEER数据库分析三阴性乳腺癌（TNBC）的预后,并建立Cox回归临床预测模型且进行内部验证。方法 使用SEER*Stat软件（8.4.2版）筛选2010—2015年诊断为TNBC的病例,进行单因素和Cox多因素回归以及向后逐步回归分析,明确与生存相关的独立危险因素,构建预测TNBC患者3年和5年癌症特异生存（CSS）率的Nomogram图,并用受试者工作特征曲线,Harrell’s一致性指数,临床预测模型校准曲线以及决策曲线对该模型进行评估及内部验证,以评估该模型的临床预测效能。结果 共筛选出符合纳入标准的TNBC患者5 564例,按照7∶3的比例随机拆分为训练集（n=3 894）和验证集（n=1 670）。通过单因素,多因素分析显示TNM分期、放射治疗、化学治疗以及手术和其他治疗的先后顺序是与TNBC患者CSS显著相关的独立危险因素（P<0.05）。利用上述预后相关因素建立Nomogram图模型。训练集的C-index为0.731（95%CI：0.712~0.749）,验证集的C-index为0.719（95%CI：0.688~0.749）,训练集和验证集3年和5年生存ROC曲线的曲线下面积均>0.7,区分度较好,且校准曲线拟合良好。结论 TNM分期、放射治疗、化学治疗以及手术和其他治疗的先后顺序是TNBC的独立预后因素,基于此建立的Nomogram图临床预测模型区分度、准确度以及临床适用性较好,能较好地预测TNBC患者的生存预后。

Objective To analyze the prognosis of triple negative breast cancer（TNBC）based on the SEER database,and to establish a Cox regression clinical prediction model with internal validation．Methods Cases diagnosed with TNBC from 2010 to 2015 were screened using SEER*Stat software（version 8.4.2）,and univariate and Cox multifactorial regression as well as backward stepwise regression analyses were performed to identify the independent risk factors associated with survival,and to construct a clinical prediction model for predicting the three- and five-year cancer specific survival（CSV）of TNBC patients．Survival（CSS）rates of TNBC patients at 3 and 5 years,and the model was evaluated and internally validated using the ROC curve,Harrell’s consistency index（C-index）,clinical prediction model calibration curve,and decision-making curve（DCA curve）to assess the predictive efficacy of the model for clinical prediction．Results A total of 5 564 TNBC patients meeting the inclusion criteria were screened and randomly split into a training set（n=3 894）and a validation set（n=1 670）according to a 7∶3 ratio．By univariate,multivariate analysis showed that T-stage,N-stage,M-stage,radiotherapy,chemotherapy,and the sequence of surgery and other treatments were independent risk factors significantly associated with CSS in TNBC patients．The above prognostic-related factors were utilized to build a Nomogram plot model．The C-index was 0.731（95%CI：0.712-0.749）for the training set and 0.719（95%CI：0.688-0.749）for the validation set,and the areas under the curves of the 3- and 5-year survival ROC curves of both the training and validation sets were >0.7,which was a good differentiation,and the calibration curves were well-fitted．Conclusions T-stage,N-stage,M-stage,radiotherapy,chemotherapy,and the sequence of surgery and other treatments are independent prognostic factors for TNBC,and the Nomogram clinical prediction model based on this has good differentiation,accuracy,and clinical utility,and can better predict the survival prognosis of TNBC patients．

目的 探讨肝脏衰弱程度联合肝功能分级预测肝硬化患者肝病复合不良事件的价值,作为识别和干预不良结局的依据。方法 选择2022年12月—2023年12月医院接收的肝硬化患者80例进行研究,随访6个月观察患者不良事件发生情况,将出现2个及以上肝病并发症的肝病复合不良事件患者25例作为观察组,将出现1个肝病并发症或未出现并发症的患者55例作为对照组,比较两组患者的基本资料、实验室指标、营养指标、体力活动水平、肝脏衰弱指数（LFI）、肝功能Child-Turcotte-Pugh（CTP）评分,采用单因素和多因素Cox回归分析评估肝硬化患者肝病复合不良事件的危险因素,使用受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线下面积评估LFI联合CTP评分预测肝硬化患者肝病复合不良事件的价值。结果 观察组年龄、丙氨酸氨基转移酶（ALT）高于对照组,红细胞计数（RBC）、血红蛋白（Hb）、血肌酐（Scr）、总胆红素（TBIL）、步速、小腿围低于对照组（t分别为4.235、6.500、3.826、3.989、4.289、8.878、2.474,均P<0.05）。观察组营养风险48.00%、LFI≥4.5分52.00%、CTP分级B/C级76.00%高于对照组18.18%、14.55%、27.27%（χ²分别为7.664、12.454、16.699,均P<0.05）。单因素Cox回归分析显示年龄、ALT、营养风险、LFI≥4.5分、CTP分级B/C级、RBC、Scr、TBIL、Hb、步速、小腿围为肝硬化患者发生肝病复合不良事件的危险因素（HR分别为2.251、1.578、1.626、1.981、1.715、1.428、1.443、1.419、1.336、1.332、1.254,均P<0.05）。多因素Cox回归分析显示年龄、营养风险、LFI≥4.5分、CTP分级B/C级为肝硬化患者发生肝病复合不良事件的独立危险因素（HR分别为2.275、1.746、2.025、1.895,P均<0.05）。ROC曲线结果显示LFI、CTP、LFI联合CTP预测肝硬化患者肝病复合不良事件的AUC分别为0.82、0.79、0.88（P<0.05）。结论 年龄、肝脏衰弱、CTP分级B/C级、营养风险为肝硬化患者肝病复合不良事件的危险因素,肝脏衰弱程度联合肝功能分级预测肝硬化患者肝病复合不良事件具有更高的效能。

Objective To explore the value of predicting liver disease complex adverse events in patients with liver cirrhosis by combining the degree of liver frailty with liver function grading,as a basis for identifying and intervening in adverse outcomes．Methods A study was conducted on 80 patients with liver cirrhosis admitted to the hospital from December 2022 to December 2023． Patients were followed up for six months to observe the occurrence of adverse events．Twenty-five patients with liver disease complex adverse events with two or more liver disease complications were selected as the observation group,and 55 patients with one or no liver disease complication were selected as the control group．The basic information,laboratory indicators,nutritional indicators,physical activity levels,liver frailty index（LFI）,Child Turcotte Pugh（CTP）scores,univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis were used to evaluate the risk factors for liver disease complex adverse events in liver cirrhosis patients．The value of combining LFI and CTP score in predicting liver disease complex adverse events in patients with liver cirrhosis was assessed by Receiver Operating Characteristic（ROC）curve area．Results The age,alanine aminotransferase（ALT）,red blood cell count（RBC）,hemoglobin（Hb）,serum creatinine（Scr）,total bilirubin（TBIL）,walking speed,and calf circumference of the observation group were higher than those of the control group（t=4.235,6.500,3.826,3.989,4.289,8.878,2.474,all P<0.05）．The nutritional risk of the observation group was 48.00%,LFI score≥4.5 was 52.00%,CTP grade B/C was 76.00%,which was higher than that of the control group at 18.18%,14.55%,and 27.27%（χ²=7.664,12.454,16.699,all P<0.05）．Univariate Cox regression analysis showed age,ALT,nutritional risk,LFI ≥ 4.5,CTP grade B/C,RBC,Scr,TBIL,Hb,step speed and calf circumference were risk factors for the occurrence of liver disease complex adverse events in patients with liver cirrhosis（HR values=2.251,1.578,1.626,1.981,1.715,1.428,1.443,1.419,1.336,1.332,1.254,all P<0.05）．Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that age,nutritional risk,LFI ≥ 4.5,and CTP grade B/C were independent risk factors for liver disease complex adverse events in patients with liver cirrhosis（HR values=2.275,1.746,2.025,1.895,all P<0.05）．The ROC curve results showed that the AUC of LFI,CTP,and LFI combined with CTP in predicting liver disease composite adverse events in patients with liver cirrhosis were 0.82,0.79,and 0.88,respectively（P<0.05）．Conclusions Age,liver frailty,CTP grade B/C,and nutritional risk are risk factors for liver disease complex adverse events in patients with liver cirrhosis．The combination of LFI and liver function grade has higher efficacy in predicting liver disease complex adverse events in patients with liver cirrhosis．

目的 构建并验证主动脉夹层B型（TBAD）患者急性期预后的列线图预测模型,帮助临床医生在急性期内更准确地评估TBAD患者的死亡风险,并制定更合适的治疗策略。方法 回顾性分析从重症监护医学信息数据库v2.2 中提取的399例 TBAD患者的人口学资料和临床资料,结局为TBAD患者急性期（≤14 d）内死亡。先采用最小绝对收缩选择算法回归筛选特征变量,再采用多因素分析确定独立预后因素,并据此构建预测模型。通过受试者工作特征曲线、校准曲线、决策曲线分析（DCA）评价列线图预测模型的性能和临床适用性。结果 APS Ⅲ评分、二氧化碳总量、红细胞分布宽度为TBAD患者14 d内死亡的独立预测因素。列线图预测模型在内部验证中的受试者工作特征曲线下面积为0.776（95% CI：0.691 ~ 0.860）,Hosmer-Lemeshow 检验P=0.604,校准曲线和标准曲线高度重合,表明该模型具有良好的区分度和校准度。同时,DCA曲线显示,预测模型在大部分的阈值概率范围内提供了显著的净收益。结论 本研究基于APS Ⅲ评分、二氧化碳总量、红细胞分布宽度构建的列线图预测模型可以较准确地预测TBAD患者14 d内的死亡风险,有助于临床医生制定更合适的个体化治疗策略。

Objective To develop and verify a nomogram for predicting acute phase outcomes in patients with type B aortic dissection（TBAD）,enabling clinicians to more precisely evaluate mortality risk in TBAD patients during the acute stage and to devise better treatment plans．Methods This retrospective study analyzed demographic and clinical data of 399 TBAD patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV v2.2,focusing on mortality within 14 days of the acute phase in TBAD patients． Initially,the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator regression was employed for feature variable selection,and then multivariate analysis was used to identify independent prognostic factors for constructing the predictive model．The nomogram predictive model's effectiveness and clinical applicability were assessed via the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve,calibration curve,and Decision Curve Analysis（DCA）．Results Acute Physidogy Score Ⅲ score,total carbon dioxide,and red blood cell distribution width emerged as independent predictors of 14-day mortality in TBAD patients．The internal validation of the nomogram predictive model showed an area under the curve of 0.776（95%CI：0.691-0.860）,with a Hosmer-Lemeshow test P-value of 0.604． The close alignment of the calibration and standard curves suggested the model's strong discriminative power and calibration． Furthermore,the DCA curve revealed that the predictive model offered substantial net benefits within a wide range of threshold probabilities．Conclusions This study's nomogram,developed using APS Ⅲ score,total carbon dioxide,and red blood cell distribution width,accurately predicts the 14-day mortality risk in TBAD patients,assisting clinicians in creating better personalized treatment plans．

目的 分析产后出血预测评分与产妇凝血指标的相关性,以及出血预测评分对阴道分娩产后出血的预测效能。方法 采用回顾性研究,纳入2021年1月—2022年12月河南科技大学第二附属医院收治的136例阴道分娩产妇,根据产后出血情况,将合并产后出血的36例患者列为病例组,其余100例列为对照组,比较两组患者的产后出血预测评分及凝血指标,经Spearman相关性系数验证产后出血预测评分结果与凝血指标的相关性,依据实际出血情况,验证产后出血预测评分、各凝血指标对产后出血的预测效能。结果 病例组患者的产后出血预测评分为（7.33±2.46）分,D-二聚体（D-D）为（2.62±0.41）mg/L,均高于对照组[（6.14±2.06）分、（2.17±0.45）mg/L],纤维蛋白原（FIB）为（4.42±1.25）g/L,低于对照组（5.23±1.16）g/L;活化部分凝血活酶时间（APTT）为（37.44±10.25）s,凝血酶原时间（PT）为（15.45±4.12）s,凝血酶时间（TT）为（16.77±4.25）s,均高于对照组[（30.11±10.12）s、（12.49±4.11）s、（13.34±4.18）s],差异具有统计学意义（P<0.05）。经Spearman相关性系数分析,产后出血预测评分与经阴道分娩产妇的D-D、APTT、PT、TT呈正相关,与FIB呈负相关。通过绘制受试者工作特征曲线（ROC）后得知,产后出血预测评分及凝血指标对产后出血均有一定预测价值,但产后出血预测评分的AUC值大于各凝血指标。结论 产后出血预测评分与产妇凝血功能指标呈正相关,将产后出血预测评分与凝血指标检测相结合能实现对产后出血的早期识别及诊断。

Objective To analyze the correlation between postpartum bleeding prediction score and maternal blood coagulation index and the prediction efficiency of postpartum bleeding in vaginal delivery．Methods This is a retrospective study．The cases were included from January 2021 to December 2022．The subjects of the study were 136 vaginal delivery mothers． According to the delivery situation,36 patients with postpartum bleeding were included in the case group,and the rest 100 patients were included in the control group．The postpartum bleeding prediction score and coagulation indicators of the two groups were compared．The correlation between postpartum bleeding prediction score and coagulation indicators was verified by Spearman correlation coefficient．According to the actual bleeding situation,verify the predictive score for postpartum bleeding and the diagnostic efficacy of various coagulation indicators on postpartum bleeding．Results According to the test,the predictive score for postpartum bleeding in the case group was（7.33±2.46）,D-dimer（D-D）was（2.62±0.41）mg/L,which were higher than those in the control group [（6.14±2.06）,（2.17±0.45）mg/L]．Fibrinogen（FIB）was（4.42±1.25）g/L,lower than the control group（5.23±1.16）g/L,activated partial thromboplastin time（APTT）was（37.44±10.25）s,prothrombin time（PT）was（15.45±4.12）s,and thrombin time（TT）was（16.77±4.25）s．Compared with the control group [（30.11±10.12）s,（12.49±4.11）s,and（13.34±4.18）s）],the above indicators were all higher（P<0.05）．Through Spearman correlation coefficient analysis,the predictive score of postpartum bleeding was positively correlated with the D-D,APTT,PT,TT,negatively correlated with the FIB of the parturient who delivered through vagina．After drawing the ROC curve,it was found that both the postpartum hemorrhage prediction score and coagulation indicators had certain predictive value for postpartum hemorrhage,but the AUC value of the postpartum hemorrhage prediction score was greater than each coagulation indicator．Conclusions The prediction score of postpartum bleeding is positively correlated with the coagulation function indicators of the parturient,combining the score and indicators can achieve early identification and diagnosis of postpartum bleeding．