目的 探讨肝硬化失代偿期患者前列素E2(PGE2)水平对患者感染发生预测价值。方法 选取2016年3月—2017年6月我院收治肝硬化失代偿期患者64例为研究对象,根据患者是否合并有感染分为A组(合并感染,23例)和B组(未合并感染,41例),采用酶联免疫吸附(ELISA)法检测患者PGE2水平,比较两组患者血清PGE2水平,并用ROC曲线预测PGE2在肝硬化失代偿期合并感染价值。结果 A、B两组患者在性别、年龄、白蛋白水平、WBC计数、Child分级、肝硬化病因方面比较均无统计学意义(P＞0.05)。A组患者PGE2水平高于B组[(3 894.6±368.4)pg/mL vs(2 541.8±318.6)pg/mL,P＜0.05]。ROC曲线在肝硬化失代偿期患者合并感染风险曲线下面积为0.86(95%CI为0.75～0.91),有统计学意义(P=0.000 0),当肝硬化失代偿期患者血清PGE2浓度为2 845 pg/mL时,预测肝硬化失代偿期患者合并感染灵敏度和特异度最高,分别为0.831和0.794。结论 肝硬化失代偿期患者PGE2水平显著升高,检测PGE2水平对肝硬化失代偿期患者发生感染有一定预测价值。

目的 分析小婴儿化脓性脑膜炎的临床特点,探讨其预测因子。方法 回顾性分析我科2015—2017年53例小月龄化脓性脑膜炎患儿的临床资料。以同时期、同年龄层的细菌感染患儿81例为观察组。通过单因素和多因素分析进行两组比较。结果 单因素分析提示早产儿、激惹、嗜睡、前囟紧张、颈强直及循环不良方面有差异。脑脊液白细胞数量、蛋白浓度、糖浓度,糖与同期血糖比值以及乳酸脱氢酶浓度均有明显差异。多因素分析提示仅脑脊液蛋白及乳酸脱氢酶有统计学意义。受试者工作曲线显示脑脊液蛋白、乳酸脱氢酶及两项指标合并的诊断效能均较高。结论 小婴儿化脓性脑膜炎患儿缺乏典型表现,密切关注早产儿基础疾病,激惹、嗜睡、前囟紧、颈强直及循环不良的临床表现,脑脊液蛋白及乳酸脱氢酶等实验室指标,有利于早期识别,及时干预,减少不良事件的发生。

Objective We aimed to analyze the clinical characteristics of community acquired purulent meningitis(PM) in infants and explore the predictors of early diagnosis. Methods Retrospective study was done with patients in our NICU from Jan 2015 to Dec 2017 aged during 29 days to 90 days. We divided them into two groups, 53 of which diagnosed PM were included as a case group, while 81 of which admitted inpatients with fever at the same periods and in the same age ranges were included as a control group. Factors including adverse basic events, clinical manifestations, laboratory examinations and so on were compared between two groups. Results Univariate analysis showed that premature, manifestations such as irritability, lethargy, bulging fontanelle,a stiff neck and the poor circulation, and cerebrospinal fluid(CSF) data like the mount of white blood cell, concentration of CSF protein, concentration of CSF glucose, CSF/blood glucose ratio, concentration of CSF lactate dehydrogenase were different between two groups. In the multivariate analysis, concentration of CSF Protein(＞0.450 g/L, OR=5.819, P=0.002) and concentration of CSF lactate dehydrogenase(＞28.300 U/L,OR=7.892, P＜0.001) were proven to be independent risk factors for the diagnosis of PM. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis revealed that the CSF protein, the CSF lactate dehydrogenase and the combination of the two factors had an increased area under the curve (AUC), the mounts of each which were 0.839,0.867 and 0.890. Conclusion Patients with PM in early infantile period are often lack of atypical clinical characteristics. We need pay highly attention to the adverse basic events, irritability, lethargy, bulging fontanelle,a stiff neck, poor circulation and CSF results. The independent predictors for early diagnosis were concentration of CSF protein and lactate dehydrogenase. It indicates that if the predictors could be identified early, diagnosis could be made timely and interventions could be operated immediately. It will be beneficial for progression-free and overall survival.

目的 研究鳞癌抗原(SCC-Ag)的表达对宫颈癌手术治疗后临床转归的预测价值。方法 选取我院2014年4月—2015年9月实施宫颈癌手术的患者52例,分别于手术前后分析所有患者的鳞癌抗原表达,对患者进行1年的随访,以发生癌细胞转移、复发或死亡为研究终点,比较预后良好的患者与预后差的患者鳞癌抗原的表达的不同。结果 Ia、Ib1、Ib2、IIa、IIb期宫颈癌患者术后SCC-Ag水平较手术前均显著降低(P＜0.05);纳入本次研究的患者宫颈癌术后复发或转移发生率为15.38%,转归良好的患者为84.62%,预后良好的患者术后SCC-Ag水平(0.91±0.27)ng/mL较发生复发或转移的患者(1.37±0.57)ng/ml显著较较低(P＜0.05)。结论 宫颈癌患者术后血清SCC-Ag水平与肿瘤的应答之间具有关联性,术后SCC-Ag水平高的患者复发与转移发生率显著高于SCC-Ag水平低的患者,鳞癌抗原的表达对宫颈癌手术后患者的转归情况具有预测价值,临床应予以重视。

目的 观察芳香烃受体(AhR)及Th17相关细胞因子在类风湿关节炎中的表达水平及其对疾病的预测价值。方法 选择2014年1月—2015年12月于我院就诊的RA患者60例作为观察组,选取同期于我院进行健康体检的正常人60例作为对照组,采用酶联免疫吸附法检测血清中 IL-17、IL-23及AhR的表达水平,并分析其与疾病活动度的关系。结果 RA患者血清IL-17、IL-23及AhR水平高于对照组(P＜0.05)。而根据病情严重程度,RA 非早期组IL-17、IL-23及AhR水平较早期组增高(P＜0.05)。血清 IL-17 水平与除CRP以外的病情活动度指标均呈正相关关系(P＜0.05)。IL-23 水平与SJC、TJC、HAQ 、DAS28 评分呈正相关关系(P＜0.05),但其他指标无明显相关性(P>0.05)。RA患者PBMC中AhR的表达水平与各项临床指标无相关性(P>0.05)。IL-17和IL-23水平与Sharp评分呈正相关关系(r=0.895,P＜0.01;r=0.708,P＜0.01)。AhR的表达与血清IL-17和IL-23水平呈正相关(r=0.415,P＜0.01)。经荧光定量PCR检测结果显示,RA患者AhR及其下游因子CYP1A1、IL-17、FOXP3 mRNA的表达水平高于对照组(P＜0.05)。且RA 非早期组AhR及其下游因子CYP1A1、IL-17、FOXP3 mRNA的表达水平较早期组增高(P＜0.05)。经相关关系检测,RA患者AhR及其下游因子CYP1A1、IL-17、FOXP3 mRNA的表达水平与Sharp评分呈正相关关系(r=0.715,P＜0.01;r=0.734,P＜0.01;r=0.812,P＜0.01;r=0.755,P＜0.01)。结论 Th17相关细胞因子IL-17和IL-23在RA病理生理过程中发挥重要作用,其表达增高,提示关节炎症处于活跃状态,骨质破坏较重,可作为评估RA病情的重要指标。RA患者体内AhR蛋白及其相关下游信号通路均呈高表达状态,AhR通路在RA患者的发病过程中可能发挥关键作用。

Objective To observe the expression level of aroma receptor (AhR) and Th17 related cytokines in rheumatoid arthritis and its predictive value to disease. Methods Sixty patients with RA who were treated in our hospital from January 2014 to December 2015 were selected as the observation group. Sixty healthy subjects were randomly selected as the control group. IL-17, IL-23 and AhR levels in serum were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent and the relationship between IL-17, IL-23 and disease activity were analyzed. Results IL-17, IL-23 and AhR levels in serum of RA patients were significantly higher than those in controls (P<0.05). However, the levels of IL-17, IL-23 and AhR levels were significantly higher in the non- early RA group than in the early group (P<0.05), depending on the severity of the disease. There was a positive correlation between serum IL-17 level and disease activity index except CRP (P<0.05). IL-23 level was positively correlated with SJC, TJC, HAQ and DAS28 scores (P<0.05), but no significant correlation was found between other indexes (P>0.05). The expression level of AhR in PBMC of RA patients was not correlated with clinical indexes (P>0.05). IL-17 and IL-23 levels were positively correlated with Sharp score (r=0.895, P<0.01; r=0.708, P<0.01). The expression of AhR was positively correlated with serum IL-17 and IL-23 levels (r=0.415, P<0.01). The expression of AhR and its downstream factors CYP1A1, IL-17 and FOXP3 mRNA in RA patients were significantly higher than those in the control group (P<0.05) by fluorescence quantitative PCR. The expression of AhR and its downstream factors CYP1A1, IL-17 and FOXP3 mRNA in RA group were significantly higher than those in early group (P<0.05). The expression level of AhR and its downstream factors CYP1A1, IL-17 and FOXP3 mRNA in RA patients were positively correlated with Sharp scores (r=0.715, P<0.01; r=0.734, P<0.01; r=0.812, P<0.01; r=0.755, P<0.01). Conclusion The Th17-related cytokines IL-17 and IL-23 play an important role in the pathophysiology of RA, and the expression of Th17-associated cytokines is increased, suggesting that arthritis is active and bone destruction is serious. The AhR protein and its associated downstream signaling pathways are highly expressed in RA patients, and the AhR pathway may play a key role in the pathogenesis of RA patients.

目的 探讨血清降钙素原(PCT)与中性粒细胞淋巴细胞比率(NLR)对预测急性胰腺炎(AP)继发急性肺损伤(ALI)的临床适用性。方法 回顾性分析60个AP病例,对合并ALI的实验组和没有合并ALI的对照组治疗前后血清PCT和NLR进行均数比较、相关性分析、ROC分析等统计分析。结果 两组间治疗前NLR(P=0.019)与治疗期间血清PCT平均值(P<0.001)有统计学差异,ROC分析:治疗前NLR、治疗期间血清PCT平均值对于预测ALI的灵敏度、特异度、约登指数分别为0.778、0.889;0.690、0.881;0.468、0.77,两者的差异有统计学意义(P=0.0134)。结论 急性胰腺炎早期治疗前,NLR对于预测ALI有一定的参考价值,而在急性胰腺炎后期,治疗期间的血清PCT平均值对于预测ALI有着良好的灵敏度和特异度,具有一定的临床适用性。

Objective To investigate the clinical applicability of serum procalcitonin levels and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in predicting acute lung injury(ALI) secondary to acute pancreatitis(AP). Methods Sixty cases of AP were recruited to explore their serum-PCT and NLR before/after treatment. Means comparison, correlation analysis, ROC analysis were carried out. Results The NLR before treatment (P=0.019)and serum-PCT after treatment(P<0.001)were statistical significance of two groups(ALI、NON-ALI). In ROC analysis, the sensitivity, specificity, Jorden index of above two index were 0.778、0.889;0.690、0.881;0.468、0.77 respectively. There were statistically significant differences between them(P=0.0134). Conclusion In the early phase before treatment in AP, NLR has certain reference value in predicting ALI. On the other hand, in the later phase after treatment in AP, serum-PCT has great sensitivity, specificity and clinical applicability.

目的 通过建立急性心力衰竭（AHF）患者服药依从性预测模型,提高AHF患者的服药依从性和临床管理效果。方法 纳入2021年1月—2023年12月在广州市番禺区何贤纪念医院住院治疗的580例AHF患者,通过收集患者的一般人口学资料、疾病相关资料及出院后6个月的服药依从性数据,应用Logistic回归模型分析患者服药依从性的影响因素,并基于影响因素建立预测模型。结果 患者服药依从性总体良好（75%）。依从性良好组与依从性差组的年龄、独居情况、合并基础病、服药种类、疾病了解评分、治疗信心评分和自我控制信心评分比较差异有统计学意义（P<0.05）。Logistic 回归分析显示危险因素包括年龄≥60岁（OR=1.774）、独居（OR=1.871）、合并基础病≥2种（OR=1.719）和服药种类≥7种（OR=1.456）。而疾病了解评分（OR=0.923）、治疗信心评分（OR=0.946）和自我控制信心评分（OR=0.901）是保护因素（P<0.05）。基于上述因素建立的预测模型,通过ROC曲线验证,曲线下面积为0.815（95%CI：0.780~0.850）,提示所构建的模型具有良好的区分度。对该模型的校准度进行评价,P=0.528,提示该预测模型拟合度良好。此外,该预测模型的一致性指数为0.738,说明模型的预测性能良好。绘制的决策曲线中,曲线位于极端线之上,当阈概率取值在9%~59%时,对应的净获益率为0~27%,提示建立的模型具有优秀的临床有效性。结论 AHF患者的服药依从性受到多种因素的影响,包括年龄、居住状态、合并基础病种类及服药种类等。

Objective To establish a predictive model for medication compliance among acute heart failure（AHF）patients in order to enhance their therapeutic compliance and optimize clinical outcomes. Methods A total of 580 AHF inpatients at He Xian Memorial Hospital in Panyu District, Guangzhou between January 2021 and December 2023 were enrolled. Demographic information, disease-specific data,as well as post-discharge medication compliance records within six-month were collected by investigators. Utilizing logistic regression analysis revealed several influential determinants affecting medication compliance which formed the basis for constructing our predictive model. Results Generally,patient compliance was good（75%）. The comparison between the good compliance group and the poor compliance group showed that there were significant differences in age, living alone,combined with underlying diseases, types of medication, disease understanding score, treatment confidence score and self-control confidence score（P<0. 05）. Logistic regression analysis showed that independent risk indicators including individuals aged ≥60 years（odds ratio[OR]=1. 774）, those living alone（OR=1. 871）, presence of two or more underlying diseases（OR=1. 719）, along with consumption of seven or more medications daily（OR=1. 456）. Conversely,disease awareness score（OR=0. 923）, treatment confidence score（OR=0. 946）, and self-control confidence score（OR=0. 901）were identified as independent protective factors. Validation using receiver operating characteristic curves demonstrated robust predictive performance with an area under curve value of 0. 815（95%CI：0. 780-0. 850）, affirming its efficacy. The calibration of the model was evaluated, with a P-value of 0. 528, indicating good fit of the predictive model. Additionally, the concordance index（C-index）of the model was 0. 738, suggesting its excellent predictive performance. The decision curve analysis revealed that the curve was above the extreme lines, with a net benefit rate ranging from 0 to 27% when the threshold probability falls between. Conclusions The medication compliance of AHF patients is influenced by various factors, including age, living arrangement, the number of underlying diseases, and the number of medications taken. Targeted interventions such as enhancing patient education, simplifying treatment regimens, and improving social support can effectively improve the medication compliance of AHF patients. The predictive model established in this study provides a scientific basis for clinicians to develop more precise and effective individualized intervention measures,thereby improving the prognosis and quality of life.

       目的   构建并验证主动脉夹层B型（TBAD）患者急性期预后的列线图预测模型，帮助临床医生在急性期内更准确地评估TBAD患者的死亡风险，并制定更合适的治疗策略。方法   回顾性分析从重症监护医学信息数据库v2.2 中提取的399例 TBAD患者的人口学资料和临床资料，结局为TBAD患者急性期（≤14 d）内死亡。先采用最小绝对收缩选择算法回归筛选特征变量，再采用多因素分析确定独立预后因素，并据此构建预测模型。通过受试者工作特征曲线、校准曲线、决策曲线分析（DCA）评价列线图预测模型的性能和临床适用性。结果  APS Ⅲ评分、二氧化碳总量、红细胞分布宽度为TBAD患者14 d内死亡的独立预测因素。列线图预测模型在内部验证中的受试者工作特征曲线下面积为0.776（95% CI：0.691 ~ 0.860），Hosmer-Lemeshow 检验P=0.604，校准曲线和标准曲线高度重合，表明该模型具有良好的区分度和校准度。同时，DCA曲线显示，预测模型在大部分的阈值概率范围内提供了显著的净收益。结论   本研究基于APS Ⅲ评分、二氧化碳总量、红细胞分布宽度构建的列线图预测模型可以较准确地预测TBAD患者14 d内的死亡风险，有助于临床医生制定更合适的个体化治疗策略。

       Objective  To develop and verify a nomogram for predicting acute phase outcomes in patients with type B aortic dissection（TBAD），enabling clinicians to more precisely evaluate mortality  risk in TBAD patients during the acute stage and to devise better treatment plans．Methods  This retrospective study analyzed demographic and clinical data of 399 TBAD patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV v2.2，focusing on mortality within 14 days of the acute phase in TBAD patients．Initially，the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator regression was employed for feature variable selection，and then multivariate analysis was used to identify independent prognostic factors for constructing the predictive model．The nomogram predictive model’s effectiveness and clinical applicability were assessed via the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve，calibration curve，and Decision Curve Analysis（DCA）．Results  Acute Physidogy Score Ⅲ score，total carbon dioxide，and red blood cell distribution width emerged as independent predictors of 14-day mortality in TBAD patients．The internal validation of the nomogram predictive model showed an area under the curve of 0.776（95%CI：0.691-0.860），with a Hosmer-Lemeshow test P-value of 0.604．The close alignment of the calibration and standard curves suggested the model’s strong discriminative power and calibration．Furthermore，the DCA curve  revealed that the predictive model offered substantial net benefits within a wide  range of threshold probabilities．Conclusions  This study's nomogram，developed using APS Ⅲ score，total carbon dioxide，and  red blood cell distribution width，accurately predicts the 14-day mortality risk in TBAD patients，assisting clinicians in creating better personalized treatment plans．

       目的   探讨肝脏衰弱程度联合肝功能分级预测肝硬化患者肝病复合不良事件的价值，作为识别和干预不良结局的依据。方法   选择2022年12月—2023年12月医院接收的肝硬化患者80例进行研究，随访6个月观察患者不良事件发生情况，将出现2个及以上肝病并发症的肝病复合不良事件患者25例作为观察组，将出现1个肝病并发症或未出现并发症的患者55例作为对照组，比较两组患者的基本资料、实验室指标、营养指标、体力活动水平、肝脏衰弱指数（LFI）、肝功能Child-Turcotte-Pugh（CTP）评分，采用单因素和多因素Cox回归分析评估肝硬化患者肝病复合不良事件的危险因素，使用受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线下面积评估LFI联合CTP评分预测肝硬化患者肝病复合不良事件的价值。结果   观察组年龄、丙氨酸氨基转移酶（ALT）高于对照组，红细胞计数（RBC）、血红蛋白（Hb）、血肌酐（Scr）、总胆红素（TBIL）、步速、小腿围低于对照组（t分别为4.235、6.500、3.826、3.989、4.289、8.878、2.474，均P＜0.05）。观察组营养风险48.00%、LFI≥4.5分52.00%、CTP分级B/C级76.00%高于对照组18.18%、14.55%、27.27%（χ ² 分别为7.664、12.454、16.699，均P＜0.05）。单因素Cox回归分析显示年龄、ALT、营养风险、LFI≥4.5分、CTP分级B/C级、RBC、Scr、TBIL、Hb、步速、小腿围为肝硬化患者发生肝病复合不良事件的危险因素（HR分别为2.251、1.578、1.626、1.981、1.715、1.428、1.443、1.419、1.336、1.332、1.254，均P＜0.05）。多因素Cox回归分析显示年龄、ALT、营养风险、LFI≥4.5分、CTP分级B/C级为肝硬化患者发生肝病复合不良事件的独立危险因素（HR分别为2.275、1.746、2.025、1.895，P均＜0.05）。ROC曲线结果显示LFI、CTP、LFI联合CTP预测肝硬化患者肝病复合不良事件的AUC分别为0.82、0.79、0.88（P＜0.05）。结论  年龄、肝脏衰弱、CTP分级B/C级、营养风险为肝硬化患者肝病复合不良事件的危险因素，肝脏衰弱程度联合肝功能分级预测肝硬化患者肝病复合不良事件具有更高的效能。

       Objective  To explore the value of predicting liver disease complex adverse events in patients with liver cirrhosis by combining the degree of liver frailty with liver function grading，as a basis for identifying and intervening in adverse outcomes．Methods  A study was conducted on 80 patients with liver cirrhosis admitted to the hospital from December 2022 to December 2023．Patients were followed up for six months to observe the occurrence of adverse events．Twenty-five patients with liver disease complex adverse events with two or more liver disease complications were selected as the observation group，and 55 patients with one or no liver disease complication were selected as the control group．The basic information，laboratory indicators，nutritional indicators，physical activity levels，liver frailty index（LFI），Child Turcotte Pugh（CTP）scores，univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis were used to evaluate the risk factors for liver disease complex adverse events in liver cirrhosis patients．The value of combining LFI and CTP score in predicting liver disease complex adverse events in patients with liver cirrhosis was assessed by Receiver Operating Characteristic （ROC）curve area．Results  The age，alanine aminotransferase（ALT），red blood cell count（RBC），hemoglobin（Hb），serum creatinine（Scr），total bilirubin（TBIL），walking speed，and calf circumference of the observation group were higher than those of the control group（t=4.235，6.500，3.826，3.989，4.289，8.878，2.474，all P＜0.05）．The nutritional risk of the observation group was 48.00%，LFI score≥4.5 was 52.00%，CTP grade B/C was 76.00%，which was higher than that of the control group at 18.18%，14.55%，and 27.27%（χ ² =7.664，12.454，16.699，all P＜0.05）．Univariate Cox regression analysis showed age，nutritional risk，LFI ≥  4.5，CTP grade B/C，RBC，Scr，TBIL，Hb，step speed and calf circumference were  risk factors for the occurrence of liver disease complex adverse events in patients with liver cirrhosis（HR values=2.251，1.578，1.626，1.981，1.715，1.428，1.443，1.419，1.336，1.332，1.254，all P＜0.05）．Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that age，ALT，nutritional risk，LFI ≥ 4.5，and CTP grade B/C were independent risk factors for liver disease complex adverse events in patients with liver cirrhosis（HR values=2.275，1.746，2.025，1.895，all P＜0.05）．The ROC curve results showed that the AUC of LFI，CTP，and LFI combined with CTP in predicting liver disease composite adverse events in patients with liver cirrhosis were 0.82，0.79，and 0.88，respectively（P＜0.05）．Conclusions  Age，liver frailty，CTP grade B/C，and nutritional  risk are  risk factors for liver disease complex adverse events in patients with liver cirrhosis．The combination of LFI and liver function grade has higher efficacy in predicting liver disease complex adverse events in patients with liver cirrhosis．

       目的   探讨、对比休克指数（SI）与血乳酸水平预测院前创伤性休克患者预后中的应用。方法   于2020年12月—2023年12月收治80例创伤性休克患者，均接受SI、乳酸水平的监测。结合监测的结果进行分组：乳酸正常组：乳酸水平在2 mmol/L以下，升高组：2 mmol/L以上；SI正常组：SI在0.9以下，升高组：SI在0.9以上。观察、记录患者入院7 d后的序贯性器官功能衰竭评分（SOFA），对多器官功能障碍综合征（MODS）情况进行评估。同时观察、记录机械通气、血管活性药物的使用和住院等情况。结果   乳酸水平升高组60例，正常组20组；SI升高组58例，正常组22例，女性乳酸水平、SI，与男性比较差异无统计学意义（P＞0.05）。是否发生多器官功能障碍者的年龄、性别、SI指数比较差异无统计学意义（P＞0.05）；格拉斯哥昏迷评分（GCS）评分［（4.22±1.53）分 vs （9.46±3.82）分，t=7.816，P＜0.001］、住院时间［（23.34±5.71）d vs （12.26±2.11）d，t=11.830，P＜0.001］、基础乳酸值［（4.75±2.36）mmol/L vs （2.04±1.11）mmol/L，t=6.721，P＜0.001］与发生MODS在组间对比差异有统计学意义。SI升高组的容量复苏收缩压＞80 mmHg（%）有27例，与乳酸水平升高组比较差异有统计学意义（P＜0.05）（46.55% vs 18.18%，χ ² =12.237，P＜0.001）。乳酸水平升高组中，11例患者接受机械通气，乳酸水平均升高（P＜0.05）；9例患者使用血管活性药物，乳酸水平均升高，比较差异无统计学意义（P＞0.05）；38例住院患者，24例乳酸水平升高（P＜0.05）。13例患者接受机械通气，12例SI升高，比较差异无统计学意义（P＞0.05）；11例患者接受血管活性物治疗，8例SI升高，比较差异无统计学意义（P＞0.05）；39例患者住院，SI升高22例，比较差异有统计学意义（P＜0.05）。结论   针对重症的创伤性休克患者，当血乳酸水平升高时会大大增加MODS发生的概率，乳酸水平在对重症创伤性休克患者预后进行预测时，应用价值更高。

       Objective  To explore and compare the application of shock index（SI）and  blood lactic acid level in predicting the prognosis of patients with pre-hospital traumatic shock．Methods  From December 2020 to December 2023，80 patients with traumatic shock were enrolled，and their SI and levels of lactic acid were monitored．Patients were grouped according to the monitoring results：normal group：lactic acid level below 2 mmol/L，increased group：above 2 mmol/L；normal group：SI below 0.9，and increased group：SI above 0.9．The sequential organ failure score（SOFA）was observed and recorded 7 days after hospitalization，and the situation of multiple organ dysfunction syndrome（MODS）was evaluated．At the same time，mechanical ventilation，the use of vasoactive substances and hospitalization were observed and recorded．Results  There were 60 cases in the group with increased lactic acid level and 20 cases in the normal group．There were 58 cases of increased SI and 22 cases of normal．The lactic acid level and SI index in women were higher than those in men，with no difference（P＞0.05）．There were no differences in age，sex，SI index and the incidence of MODS（P＞0.05）．GCS score（4.22±1.53 vs 9.46±3.82），hospitalization days（23.34±5.71 vs 12.26±2.11）d，basal lactate value（4.75±2.36 vs 2.04±1.11）mmol L-1 were significantly different from those of MODS（t=11.830，P＜0.001；t=6.721，P＜0.001，P＜0.05）．There were 27 cases with volume  resuscitation systolic blood pressure ＞ 80 mmhg（%）in the group with increased SI，which was different from that of SI and lactic acid（46.55% vs18.18%，χ ² =12.237，P＜0.001；P＜0.05）．Lactic acid increased group：11 patients received mechanical ventilation，and the lactic acid levels of all 11 patients increased（P＜0.05）．Nine patients used vasoactive substances，and their lactic acid levels all increased，with no significant difference（P＞0.05）．Of the 38 inpatients，24 cases had elevated lactic acid levels（P＜0.05）．Thirteen patients received mechanical ventilation，and 12 patients had elevated SI，with no statistical significance（P＞0.05）．Eleven patients were treated with vasoactive agents，and 8 patients had increased SI，with no difference（P＞0.05）．Among the 39 patients hospitalized，22 cases had increased SI，and the difference was statistically significant（P＜0.05）．Conclusions  For patients with severe traumatic shock，when the blood lactic acid level increases，the probability of MODS will be greatly increased．Compared with SI index，lactic acid level has higher application value in predicting the prognosis of patients with severe traumatic shock．

  目的   基于SEER数据库分析三阴性乳腺癌（TNBC）的预后，并建立Cox回归临床预测模型且进行内部验证。方法   使用SEER*Stat软件（8.4.2版）筛选2010—2015年诊断为TNBC的病例，进行单因素和Cox多因素回归以及向后逐步回归分析，明确与生存相关的独立危险因素，构建预测TNBC患者3年和5年癌症特异生存（CSS）率的Nomogram图，并用受试者工作特征曲线，Harrell’s一致性指数，临床预测模型校准曲线以及决策曲线对该模型进行评估及内部验证，以评估该模型的临床预测效能。结果   共筛选出符合纳入标准的TNBC患者5 564例，按照7∶3的比例随机拆分为训练集（n=3 894）和验证集（n=1 670）。通过单因素，多因素分析显示TNM分期、放射治疗、化学治疗以及手术和其他治疗的先后顺序是与TNBC患者CSS显著相关的独立危险因素（P＜0.05）。利用上述预后相关因素建立Nomogram图模型。训练集的C-index为0.731（95%CI：0.712~0.749），验证集的C-index为0.719（95%CI：0.688~0.749），训练集和验证集3年和5年生存ROC曲线的曲线下面积均＞0.7，区分度较好，且校准曲线拟合良好。结论  TNM分期、放射治疗、化学治疗以及手术和其他治疗的先后顺序是TNBC的独立预后因素，基于此建立的Nomogram图临床预测模型区分度、准确度以及临床适用性较好，能较好地预测TNBC患者的生存预后。

    Objective  To analyze the prognosis of triple negative breast cancer（TNBC）based on the SEER database，and to establish a Cox regression clinical prediction model with internal validation．Methods  Cases diagnosed with TNBC from 2010 to 2015 were screened using SEER*Stat software（version 8.4.2），and univariate and Cox multifactorial  regression as well as backward stepwise regression analyses were performed to identify the independent risk factors associated with survival，and to construct a clinical prediction model for predicting the three- and five-year cancer specific survival（CSV）of TNBC patients．Survival（CSS）rates of TNBC patients at 3 and 5 years，and the model was evaluated and internally validated using the ROC curve，Harrell’s consistency index（C-index），clinical prediction model calibration curve，and decision-making curve（DCA curve）to assess the predictive efficacy of the model for clinical prediction．Results  A total of 5 564 TNBC patients meeting the inclusion criteria were screened and randomly split into a training set（n=3 894）and a validation set（n=1 670）according to a 7∶3 ratio．By univariate，multivariate analysis showed that T-stage，N-stage，M-stage，radiotherapy，chemotherapy，and the sequence of surgery and other treatments were independent risk factors significantly associated with CSS in TNBC patients．The above prognostic-related factors were utilized to build a Nomogram plot model．The C-index was 0.731（95%CI：0.712-0.749）for the training set and 0.719（95%CI：0.688-0.749）for the validation set，and the areas under the curves of the 3- and 5-year survival ROC curves of both the training and validation sets were ＞0.7，which was a good differentiation，and the calibration curves were well-fitted．Conclusions  T-stage，N-stage，M-stage，radiotherapy，chemotherapy，and the  sequence of  surgery and other treatments are independent prognostic factors for TNBC，and the Nomogram clinical prediction model based on this has good differentiation，accuracy，and clinical utility，and can better predict the survival prognosis of TNBC patients．