目的 应用FRAX^®工具评估广州社区中老年人发生骨质疏松性骨折的风险。方法 回顾性研究1 140例广州社区中老年人的临床资料,应用FRAX^®工具计算未来10年发生主要骨质疏松性骨折及髋部骨折的风险,分析不同危险因素与骨折风险的关系。结果 广州社区中老年人群10年内发生主要骨质疏松性骨折概率为(4.2±3.6)%,髋部骨折概率为(1.3±2.4)%。主要骨质疏松性骨折风险及髋部骨折风险、OSTA值均随着年龄增长而增加。多因素回归分析结果显示: 年龄、性别、既往骨折、继发性骨质疏松、股骨颈T值、跌倒对主要部位骨折及髋部骨折风险具有独立性预测意义。结论 FRAX^®工具可用于评估广州社区中老年人骨质疏松性骨折风险,建议在社区中老年人健康体检时应用FRAX^®工具进行骨折风险评估。

Objective To predict the osteoporotic fracture risk in senile people in Guangzhou communities by FRAX,the fracture risk assessment tool published by WHO. Methods Clinical data of 1140 cases were collected for the retrospective analysis. The FRAX tool was uesed to calculate the 10-year probability of a major osteoporotic and hip fracture.The relationship between different risk factors and the fracture risk predicted by FRAX was analyzed. Results The 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures was (4.2±3.6)%, and the 10-year probability of hip fractures was (1.3±2.4)%.The 10-year probability of the major osteoporotic and hip fracture increased with age.Multivariate regression analysis showed that age,gender,previous fracture,secondary osteoporosis,T-score of femoral neck BMD and fall were independent predictors of the 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture. Conclusion The FRAX tool may be effectively applied to assess the fracture risk of senile population in Guangzhou communities.We recommedated that FRAX-tool should be included in routine health check-up.

目的 探讨白蛋白-胆红素（ALBI）联合中性粒细胞与淋巴细胞比值（NLR）预测肝硬化合并食管胃底静脉曲张破裂出血（EGVB）的临床价值。方法 回顾性分析2021年1月—2022年12月肇庆市第一人民医院消化内科收治的80例肝硬化合并EGVB患者的临床资料,通过电话及门诊、再入院对其进行为期1年的随访,根据随访结果,将其分为2组,即存活组（n=69）与死亡组（n=11）,分析导致患者死亡的危险因素,并评估ALBI联合NLR预测肝硬化合并EGVB患者死亡的临床价值。结果 死亡组的年龄60岁以上、腹水和肝性脑病者占比,总胆红素（TBiL）、NLR、凝血酶原时间（PT）、谷丙转氨酶（ALT）水平及ALBI评分均高于存活组（均P<0.05）,而血红蛋白（HGB）、白蛋白（ALB）及血钠水平均低于存活组（均P<0.05）;Logtisic回归分析显示,年龄60岁以上、腹水、肝性脑病和TBiL、NLR水平升高及ALBI分级为3级是肝硬化合并EGVB患者死亡的危险因素（均P<0.05）;ALBI联合NLR预测肝硬化合并EGVB患者预后的准确率及灵敏度高于单一诊断,漏诊率低于单一诊断（P<0.05）。结论 肝硬化合并EGVB患者可见ALBI评分及NLR水平升高,而以上两种指标是患者死亡的危险因素,将其联合检测可评估患者预后,预测其死亡风险。

Objective To investigate the clinical value of albumin-bilirubin（ALBI）combined with neutrophil lymphocyte ratio（NLR）in predicting liver cirrhosis complicated with esophageal and gastric varices bleeding（EGVB）．Methods The clinical data of 80 patients with liver cirrhosis complicated with EGVB admitted to the Department of Gastroenterology of the First People's Hospital of Zhaoqing from January 2021 to December 2022 were retrospectively analyzed．They were followed up for one year by telephone,outpatient service and readmission．According to the follow-up results,they were divided into the survival group（n=69）and the death group（n=11）．The risk factors leading to the death of patients were analyzed and evaluated．Results The proportion of age over 60,ascites and hepatic encephalopathy,the levels of TBiL,NLR,PT,ALT and ALBI in the death group were higher（P<0.05）,while the levels of HGB,ALB and blood sodium were lower（P<0.05）．Logistics analysis showed that age over 60,ascites,hepatic encephalopathy,NLR and ALBI grade 3 were independent risk factors for the death（P<0.05）．The accuracy and sensitivity of ALBI combined with NLR in predicting their prognosis were significantly higher than that of single diagnosis,and the missed diagnosis rate was lower（P<0.05）．Conclusions ALBI scores and NLR levels significantly increase in patients with liver cirrhosis complicated with EGVB,and the above two indexes are risk factors for the death,and the combination of them can evaluate the prognosis of patients and predict the death risk．

目的 探讨尿液前列腺特异性抗原（u-PSA）预测老年良性前列腺增生（BPH）发生急性尿潴留（AUR）的价值。方法 选取东莞市中医院100例老年BPH患者（2020年1月—2021年4月）进行回顾性研究,均口服盐酸坦索罗辛+非那雄胺片治疗,随访1年,记录AUR发生情况,据此分为AUR组、非AUR组。比较2组一般资料,Logistic回归模型分析老年BPH发生AUR的危险因素,受试者工作特征（ROC）分析前列腺体积（PV）、u-PSA对老年BPH发生AUR的预测价值。结果 100例老年BPH患者AUR发生率为26%;AUR组u-PSA水平高于非AUR组,PV大于非AUR组（P<0.05）;Logistic回归模型分析,u-PSA水平及PV增高是老年BPH患者发生AUR的独立危险因素（P<0.05）;ROC曲线分析,u-PSA预测AUR的AUC=0.897,高于AUC_PV（P<0.05）。结论 u-PSA可作为老年BPH继发AUR的量化评估指标,有利于临床早期筛查、诊断,采取针对性干预措施,改善预后。

Objective To investigate the value of urinary prostate-specific antigen（u-PSA）in predicting acute urinary retention（AUR）in elderly patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia（BPH）．Methods A total of 100 elderly patients with BPH in our hospital（from January 2020 to April 2021）were selected for a retrospective study,all of whom were treated with oral tamsulosin hydrochloride + finasteride tablets,followed up for 1 year,and the occurrence of AUR was recorded．The patients were divided into AUR group and non-AUR group．The general data of the two groups were compared．Logistic regression model was used to analyze the risk factors of AUR in elderly BPH patients,and receiver operating characteristic（ROC）was used to analyze the predictive value of prostate volume（PV）and u-PSA for AUR occurrence．Results The incidence of AUR in 100 elderly patients with BPH was 26%;the level of u-PSA in the AUR group was higher than that in the non-AUR group,and the PV was greater than that in the non-AUR group（P<0.05）．Increased PV was an independent risk factor for AUR in elderly patients with BPH（P<0.05）．ROC curve analysis showed that the AUC of u-PSA for predicting AUR was 0.897,which was higher than that of PV（P<0.05）．Conclusions u-PSA can be used as a quantitative evaluation index for AUR secondary to BPH in the elderly,which is conducive to early clinical screening and diagnosing,and taking targeted intervention measures to improve prognosis.

目的 探讨亚实性肺腺癌结节CT征象在预测侵袭风险中的价值。方法 选取经胸部CT检查发现并经病理证实为肺腺癌的亚实性结节共76个病灶,病灶分为侵袭前组与侵袭组2组,分析结节CT征象,行统计学分析,明确亚实性肺腺癌结节侵袭性的预测因素。结果 侵袭前组（包括原位腺癌、微浸润性腺癌）共31例;侵袭组[浸润性腺癌（IAC）]共45例。2组在最大平均直径、结节平均CT值、结节形状、分叶、毛刺、胸膜牵拉征、有无实性成分、肿瘤微血管CT成像征间比较差异有统计学意义（P<0.05）,而在空泡征、空气支气管征方面比较差异无统计学意义（P>0.05）。结节最大直径预测浸润性腺癌侵袭性界值为13.63 mm,敏感度、特异度分别为68.9%、96.8%,AUC为0.885;平均CT值预测IAC侵袭性界值为-528 HU,敏感度、特异度分别为84.4%、83.9%,AUC为0.867。回归分析显示病灶最大平均直径（OR=2.015、P=0.01）可以作为浸润性肺腺癌结节的独立预测因子。结论 亚实性肺腺癌结节侵袭前组和侵袭组在最大直径、平均CT值、形状、分叶、毛刺、微血管征存在差异;结节的最大平均直径是IAC的独立预测因子。

Objective To investigate the value of CT signs in predicting the risk of invasion of subsolid lung adenocarcinoma nodules．Methods A total of 76 subsolid pulmonary adenocarcinoma nodules detected by chest CT and pathologically confirmed were selected,and the lesions were divided into pre-invasion group and invasion group．CT signs of nodules were analyzed and statistical analysis was performed to determine the predictive factors of invasion of subsolid pulmonary adenocarcinoma nodules．Results There were 31 cases in the pre-invasion group（including adenocarcinoma in situ and minimally invasive adenocarcinoma）and 45 cases ininvasion group[invasive adenocarcinoma（IAC）]．There were significant differences in maximum mean diameter,mean CT value of nodule,nodule shape,lobule,burr,pleural stretch sign,solid component and microvascular CT imaging signs between the two groups（P<0.05）,but there were no significant differences in vacuole sign and air bronchial sign between the two groups（P>0.05）．The maximum diameter of nodules predicted the invasion boundary of invasive adenocarcinoma was 13.63 mm,the sensitivity and specificity were 68.9% and 96.8%,respectively,and the AUC was 0.885．The mean CT value predicted the invasive boundary of IAC was -528 HU,the sensitivity and specificity were 84.4% and 83.9%,respectively,and the AUC was 0.867．Regression analysis showed that the maximum mean lesion diameter（OR=2.015,P=0.01）was an independent predictor of infiltrating lung adenocarcinoma nodules．Conclusions There were differences in the maximum diameter,mean CT value,shape,lobed,burr and microvascular signs between the pre-invasion group and the invasion group．The maximum mean diameter of nodules was an independent predictor of IAC．

目的 探讨术前超声有关指标在预测腹腔镜胆囊切除术(LC)难易度中的价值,以预判LC手术的风险,减少手术的盲目性。方法 257例术前获得的超声参数包括:胆囊大小、胆囊壁厚度、胆囊黏膜面情况、胆囊内胆汁透声情况、胆囊结石最大直径、胆囊颈部结石嵌顿情况。术后资料包括手术时间、术中出血量、是否放置引流管、是否中转进腹手术、术后并发症。计算257例手术的平均时间并将其称为标准手术时间,将超过标准手术时间的、术中出血≥100 mL、术后放置引流管、中转开腹的手术定义为有难度手术。以此标准将257例手术患者分为容易组和困难组,应用χ²检验进行单因素分析,LC手术困难的危险因素;再对这些指标进行Logistic多元回归分析,确定预测LC难易的独立危险因素。结果 单因素分析,术前超声指标:胆囊大小>50 cm²、胆囊壁厚度>4 mm、胆囊结石最大直径>2 cm、胆囊颈部结石嵌顿、胆囊内胆汁透声差,是LC难度的危险因素。Logistic多元回归分析证实,胆囊大小、胆囊壁厚度、胆囊内胆汁透声差、胆囊颈部结石嵌顿等4项超声检测指标是困难LC的独立危险因素。结论 手术前胆囊超声检查可以客观评估LC难度,对指导术者选择LC病例具有一定的预测价值。

Objective To explore the value of preoperative ultrasound indicators in predicting the difficulty of laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC), in order to predict the risk of LC surgery and reduce the blindness of surgery. Methods The preoperative ultrasonographic parameters of 257 cases included gallbladder size, gallbladder wall thickness, gallbladder mucosal surface, bile sound transmission in gallbladder, maximum diameter of gallstone, and gallstone incarceration in gallbladder neck. Postoperative data included operation time, intraoperative blood loss, whether drainage tube was placed, whether transfer to abdominal surgery, and postoperative complications. The average operation time of the 257 cases was calculated and called the standard operation time, and the operation that exceeded the standard operation time, intraoperative bleeding ≥100 mL, postoperative drainage tube placing, and conversion of abdominal operation were defined as difficult operation. According to this standard, 257 patients were divided into the easy group and the difficult group. The χ² test was used for univariate analysis to identify the risk factors of difficult LC operation. Logistic multiple regression analysis was performed to determine the independent risk factors for predicting LC difficulty. Results According to unifactor analysis, preoperative ultrasound indicators: gallbladder size >50 cm², gallbladder wall thickness >4 mm, maximum diameter of gallstone >2 cm, gallbladder neck stone incarceration, and poor bile ultrasound transmission in gallbladder were risk factors for LC difficulty. Logistic multiple regression analysis confirmed that gallbladder size, gallbladder wall thickness, poor bile ultrasound transmission in gallbladder and stone incarceration in gallbladder neck were independent risk factors for difficult LC. Conclusions Ultrasound examination of gallbladder before operation could objectively evaluate the difficulty of LC, and had certain predictive value for guiding the surgeon to select LC cases.

目的 探讨血浆BNP预测急性肺栓塞患者发生心血管疾病的临床价值。方法 选择2017年1月—2017年12月在我院诊断为急性肺血栓栓塞患者97例为研究对象,根据有无出现心血管并发症分为观察组(21例)和对照组(76例)。比较两组间实验室指标的差异性和相关性,并采用ROC曲线分析BNP预测急性肺栓塞患者发生心血管疾病的临床价值。结果 观察组共出现21例心血管并发症,占21.65%。观察组中BNP、Hs-CRP 、TnI 、AST、CK和DD的浓度分别为(413.01±33.09)(pg/mL)、(20.49±2.88)mg/L、(0.154±0.103)μg/L、(131.23±27.05)U/L、(421.64±50.70)U/L和(1.95±0.18)mg/L,高于对照组(P<0.05)。Spearman相关性分析,血浆BNP水平与Hs-CRP 、TnI 、AST、CK和DD水平呈正相关(r=0.802、0.718、0.683、0.705、0.753,P<0.05)。ROC曲线分析,BNP的AUC面积最高,为0.834(95%CI:0.795~0.935),敏感度和特异度分别为90.5%和87.5%,联合诊断的AUC面积为0.892(95%CI:0.811~0.976),敏感度和特异度分别为84.6%和91.3%。结论 血浆BNP对于预测急性肺栓塞患者发生心血管疾病具有极高临床价值,采取多指标联合检查可以更加有效发现心血管疾病的发生。

Objective To investigate the clinical value of plasma BNP in predicting cardiovascular disease in patients with acute pulmonary embolism. Methods 97 cases of acute pulmonary thromboembolism diagnosed in our hospital from January to December 2017 were selected.The patients were divided into the observation group (21 cases) and control group (76 cases) according to whether there were cardiovascular complications.The differences and correlations of laboratory indexes between the two groups were compared, and the ROC curve was used to analyze the clinical value of BNP in predicting the occurrence of cardiovascular disease in patients with acute pulmonary embolism. Results 21 cases of cardiovascular complications occurred in the observation group, accounting for 21.65%.The concentration of BNP, Hs-CRP, TnI, AST, CK and DD in the observation group were (413.01±33.09) (pg/mL), (20.49±2.88) mg/L, (0.154±0.103) μg/L, (131.23±27.05) U/L, (421.64±50.70) U/L and (1.95±0.18) mg/L, which were higher than those of the control group(P<0.05). Spearman correlation analysis showed that plasma BNP levels were positively correlated with the levels of Hs-CRP, TnI, AST, CK and DD (r=0.802,0.718,0.683,0.705,0.753,P<0.05). The ROC curve analysis showed that the area of AUC of BNP was 0.834 (95%CI:0.795~0.935) of the highest, the sensitivity and specificity were 90.5% and 87.5% respectively. The area of combined diagnosis of AUC was 0.892 (95%CI:0.811~0.976),the sensitivity and specificity were 84.6% and 91.3%, respectively. Conclusion Plasma BNP is of high clinical value for predicting the incidence of cardiovascular disease in patients with acute pulmonary embolism. Multi-index combined examination may be more effective to detect the occurrence of cardiovascular disease.

目的 应用FRAX^®工具评估广州社区中老年人发生骨质疏松性骨折的风险。方法 回顾性研究1 140例广州社区中老年人的临床资料,应用FRAX^®工具计算未来10年发生主要骨质疏松性骨折及髋部骨折的风险,分析不同危险因素与骨折风险的关系。结果 广州社区中老年人群10年内发生主要骨质疏松性骨折概率为(4.2±3.6)%,髋部骨折概率为(1.3±2.4)%。主要骨质疏松性骨折风险及髋部骨折风险、OSTA值均随着年龄增长而增加。多因素回归分析结果显示: 年龄、性别、既往骨折、继发性骨质疏松、股骨颈T值、跌倒对主要部位骨折及髋部骨折风险具有独立性预测意义。结论 FRAX^®工具可用于评估广州社区中老年人骨质疏松性骨折风险,建议在社区中老年人健康体检时应用FRAX^®工具进行骨折风险评估。

Objective To predict the osteoporotic fracture risk in senile people in Guangzhou communities by FRAX,the fracture risk assessment tool published by WHO. Methods Clinical data of 1140 cases were collected for the retrospective analysis. The FRAX tool was uesed to calculate the 10-year probability of a major osteoporotic and hip fracture.The relationship between different risk factors and the fracture risk predicted by FRAX was analyzed. Results The 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures was (4.2±3.6)%, and the 10-year probability of hip fractures was (1.3±2.4)%.The 10-year probability of the major osteoporotic and hip fracture increased with age.Multivariate regression analysis showed that age,gender,previous fracture,secondary osteoporosis,T-score of femoral neck BMD and fall were independent predictors of the 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture. Conclusion The FRAX tool may be effectively applied to assess the fracture risk of senile population in Guangzhou communities.We recommedated that FRAX-tool should be included in routine health check-up.

目的 探讨血清降钙素原(PCT)与中性粒细胞淋巴细胞比率(NLR)对预测急性胰腺炎(AP)继发急性肺损伤(ALI)的临床适用性。方法 回顾性分析60个AP病例,对合并ALI的实验组和没有合并ALI的对照组治疗前后血清PCT和NLR进行均数比较、相关性分析、ROC分析等统计分析。结果 两组间治疗前NLR(P=0.019)与治疗期间血清PCT平均值(P<0.001)有统计学差异,ROC分析:治疗前NLR、治疗期间血清PCT平均值对于预测ALI的灵敏度、特异度、约登指数分别为0.778、0.889;0.690、0.881;0.468、0.77,两者的差异有统计学意义(P=0.0134)。结论 急性胰腺炎早期治疗前,NLR对于预测ALI有一定的参考价值,而在急性胰腺炎后期,治疗期间的血清PCT平均值对于预测ALI有着良好的灵敏度和特异度,具有一定的临床适用性。

Objective To investigate the clinical applicability of serum procalcitonin levels and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in predicting acute lung injury(ALI) secondary to acute pancreatitis(AP). Methods Sixty cases of AP were recruited to explore their serum-PCT and NLR before/after treatment. Means comparison, correlation analysis, ROC analysis were carried out. Results The NLR before treatment (P=0.019)and serum-PCT after treatment(P<0.001)were statistical significance of two groups(ALI、NON-ALI). In ROC analysis, the sensitivity, specificity, Jorden index of above two index were 0.778、0.889;0.690、0.881;0.468、0.77 respectively. There were statistically significant differences between them(P=0.0134). Conclusion In the early phase before treatment in AP, NLR has certain reference value in predicting ALI. On the other hand, in the later phase after treatment in AP, serum-PCT has great sensitivity, specificity and clinical applicability.

       目的   探讨、对比休克指数（SI）与血乳酸水平预测院前创伤性休克患者预后中的应用。方法   于2020年12月—2023年12月收治80例创伤性休克患者，均接受SI、乳酸水平的监测。结合监测的结果进行分组：乳酸正常组：乳酸水平在2 mmol/L以下，升高组：2 mmol/L以上；SI正常组：SI在0.9以下，升高组：SI在0.9以上。观察、记录患者入院7 d后的序贯性器官功能衰竭评分（SOFA），对多器官功能障碍综合征（MODS）情况进行评估。同时观察、记录机械通气、血管活性药物的使用和住院等情况。结果   乳酸水平升高组60例，正常组20组；SI升高组58例，正常组22例，女性乳酸水平、SI，与男性比较差异无统计学意义（P＞0.05）。是否发生多器官功能障碍者的年龄、性别、SI指数比较差异无统计学意义（P＞0.05）；格拉斯哥昏迷评分（GCS）评分［（4.22±1.53）分 vs （9.46±3.82）分，t=7.816，P＜0.001］、住院时间［（23.34±5.71）d vs （12.26±2.11）d，t=11.830，P＜0.001］、基础乳酸值［（4.75±2.36）mmol/L vs （2.04±1.11）mmol/L，t=6.721，P＜0.001］与发生MODS在组间对比差异有统计学意义。SI升高组的容量复苏收缩压＞80 mmHg（%）有27例，与乳酸水平升高组比较差异有统计学意义（P＜0.05）（46.55% vs 18.18%，χ ² =12.237，P＜0.001）。乳酸水平升高组中，11例患者接受机械通气，乳酸水平均升高（P＜0.05）；9例患者使用血管活性药物，乳酸水平均升高，比较差异无统计学意义（P＞0.05）；38例住院患者，24例乳酸水平升高（P＜0.05）。13例患者接受机械通气，12例SI升高，比较差异无统计学意义（P＞0.05）；11例患者接受血管活性物治疗，8例SI升高，比较差异无统计学意义（P＞0.05）；39例患者住院，SI升高22例，比较差异有统计学意义（P＜0.05）。结论   针对重症的创伤性休克患者，当血乳酸水平升高时会大大增加MODS发生的概率，乳酸水平在对重症创伤性休克患者预后进行预测时，应用价值更高。

       Objective  To explore and compare the application of shock index（SI）and  blood lactic acid level in predicting the prognosis of patients with pre-hospital traumatic shock．Methods  From December 2020 to December 2023，80 patients with traumatic shock were enrolled，and their SI and levels of lactic acid were monitored．Patients were grouped according to the monitoring results：normal group：lactic acid level below 2 mmol/L，increased group：above 2 mmol/L；normal group：SI below 0.9，and increased group：SI above 0.9．The sequential organ failure score（SOFA）was observed and recorded 7 days after hospitalization，and the situation of multiple organ dysfunction syndrome（MODS）was evaluated．At the same time，mechanical ventilation，the use of vasoactive substances and hospitalization were observed and recorded．Results  There were 60 cases in the group with increased lactic acid level and 20 cases in the normal group．There were 58 cases of increased SI and 22 cases of normal．The lactic acid level and SI index in women were higher than those in men，with no difference（P＞0.05）．There were no differences in age，sex，SI index and the incidence of MODS（P＞0.05）．GCS score（4.22±1.53 vs 9.46±3.82），hospitalization days（23.34±5.71 vs 12.26±2.11）d，basal lactate value（4.75±2.36 vs 2.04±1.11）mmol L-1 were significantly different from those of MODS（t=11.830，P＜0.001；t=6.721，P＜0.001，P＜0.05）．There were 27 cases with volume  resuscitation systolic blood pressure ＞ 80 mmhg（%）in the group with increased SI，which was different from that of SI and lactic acid（46.55% vs18.18%，χ ² =12.237，P＜0.001；P＜0.05）．Lactic acid increased group：11 patients received mechanical ventilation，and the lactic acid levels of all 11 patients increased（P＜0.05）．Nine patients used vasoactive substances，and their lactic acid levels all increased，with no significant difference（P＞0.05）．Of the 38 inpatients，24 cases had elevated lactic acid levels（P＜0.05）．Thirteen patients received mechanical ventilation，and 12 patients had elevated SI，with no statistical significance（P＞0.05）．Eleven patients were treated with vasoactive agents，and 8 patients had increased SI，with no difference（P＞0.05）．Among the 39 patients hospitalized，22 cases had increased SI，and the difference was statistically significant（P＜0.05）．Conclusions  For patients with severe traumatic shock，when the blood lactic acid level increases，the probability of MODS will be greatly increased．Compared with SI index，lactic acid level has higher application value in predicting the prognosis of patients with severe traumatic shock．

       目的   探讨白蛋白-胆红素（ALBI）联合中性粒细胞与淋巴细胞比值（NLR）预测肝硬化合并食管胃底静脉曲张破裂出血（EGVB）的临床价值。方法   回顾性分析2021年1月—2022年12月肇庆市第一人民医院消化内科收治的80例肝硬化合并EGVB患者的临床资料，通过电话及门诊、再入院对其进行为期1年的随访，根据随访结果，将其分为2组，即存活组（n=69）与死亡组（n=11），分析导致患者死亡的危险因素，并评估ALBI联合NLR预测肝硬化合并EGVB患者死亡的临床价值。结果   死亡组的年龄60岁以上、腹水和肝性脑病者占比，总胆红素（TBiL）、NLR、凝血酶原时间（PT）、谷丙转氨酶（ALT）水平及ALBI评分均高于存活组（均P＜0.05），而血红蛋白（HGB）、白蛋白（ALB）及血钠水平均低于存活组（均P＜0.05）；Logtisic回归分析显示，年龄60岁以上、腹水、肝性脑病和TBiL、NLR水平升高及ALBI分级为3级是肝硬化合并EGVB患者死亡的危险因素（均P＜0.05）；ALBI联合NLR预测肝硬化合并EGVB患者预后的准确率及灵敏度高于单一诊断，漏诊率低于单一诊断（P＜0.05）。结论   肝硬化合并EGVB患者可见ALBI评分及NLR水平升高，而以上两种指标是患者死亡的危险因素，将其联合检测可评估患者预后，预测其死亡风险。

       Objective  To investigate the clinical value of albumin-bilirubin（ALBI）combined with neutrophil lymphocyte ratio（NLR）in predicting liver cirrhosis complicated with esophageal  and gastric varices bleeding（EGVB）．Methods The clinical data of 80 patients with liver cirrhosis complicated with EGVB admitted to the Department of Gastroenterology of the First People’s Hospital of Zhaoqing from January 2021 to December 2022 were retrospectively analyzed．They were followed up for one year by telephone，outpatient service and readmission．According to the follow-up results，they were divided into the survival group（n=69）and the death group（n=11）．The risk factors leading to the death of patients were analyzed and evaluated．Results  The proportion of age over 60，ascites and hepatic encephalopathy，the levels of TBiL，NLR，PT，ALT and ALBI in the death group were higher（P＜0.05），while the levels of HGB，ALB and blood sodium were lower（P＜0.05）．Logistics analysis showed that age over 60，ascites，hepatic encephalopathy，NLR and ALBI grade 3 were independent risk factors for the death（P＜0.05）．The accuracy and sensitivity of ALBI combined with NLR in predicting their prognosis were significantly higher than that of single diagnosis，and the missed diagnosis rate was lower（P＜0.05）．Conclusions  ALBI scores and NLR levels significantly increase in patients with liver cirrhosis complicated with EGVB，and the above two indexes are risk factors for the death，and the combination of them can evaluate the prognosis of patients and predict the death risk．