目的 汇总分析肝硬化患者消化道出血风险预测模型，为今后模型的建立和优化提供参考。方法   系统检索中国知网、维普、PubMed数据库在2025年4月22日前公开发表的所有肝硬化患者消化道出血风险预测模型，按纳入标准筛选文献，对最终纳入文章分析摘录并系统汇总，包括模型特征、危险因素及模型预测评估效果等信息。结果   共检索3 603篇预测模型相关研究论文，最终纳入30篇，其中中国27篇、韩国1篇、印度1篇、埃及1篇。22项研究收集了肝硬化病因，其中病毒性肝病最多（72.94%，2 922/4 006），药物性肝病及非酒精性脂肪性肝病最少（均为0.02%，1/4 006）。在研究类型上，有28篇单中心研究，2篇为多中心研究，其中有12个模型未进行验证，只有1个模型进行了外部验证，其余模型只进行了内部验证，曲线下面积（AUC）范围0.680~0.994。根据模型纳入因素特点，分为血常规指标、凝血指标、生化指标、影像学指标、复合指标、其他指标共6种，其中纳入因素最多为影像学指标，最少为凝血指标。在纳入危险因素中，第1位为门静脉直径，第2位为血小板计数，第3位为血红蛋白水平及脾脏硬度，所有因素中与脾脏相关的指标最多。结论   肝硬化患者消化道出血风险预测模型研究质量有待提升，影像学指标应用最广，脾脏相关指标重要性突出，门静脉直径、血小板计数、血红蛋白水平及脾脏硬度为最常用的危险预测因素。

       Objective  To  summarize and analyze the  prediction models for gastrointestinal  bleeding  risk in  patients with cirrhosis，providing references for the establishment and optimization of future models．Methods  A systematic search was conducted in CNKI，VIP，and PubMed for all published prediction models for gastrointestinal bleeding risk in patients with cirrhosis before April 22，2025．Articles were screened according to the inclusion criteria，and the finally included articles were analyzed and summarized，including model characteristics，risk factors，and model prediction evaluation effects．Results  A total of 3 603 related research papers on prediction models were initially retrieved，and 30 were finally included，with 27 from China，one from South Korea，one from India，and one from Egypt．Among the 22 studies that collected the etiology of cirrhosis，viral hepatitis was the most common（72.94%，2 922/4 006），while drug-induced liver disease and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease were the least common（0.02%，1/4 006）．In terms of study type，28 were single-center studies and two were multicenter studies．Among them，12 models were not validated，only one model was externally validated，and the rest were only internally validated，with an area under the curve range of 0.680-0.994．According to the characteristics of the factors included in the models，they were divided into six types of indicators：blood routine，coagulation，biochemistry，imaging，composite，and others，among which imaging indicators were the most common and coagulation indicators were the least．In the included risk factors，the first was portal vein diameter，the second was platelets count，and the third was hemoglobin level and spleen stiffness，with the most factors related to the spleen．Conclusions  The quality of studies on prediction models for gastrointestinal bleeding risk in cirrhosis patients needs to be improved．Imaging indicators are the most widely used，and spleen-related indicators are of prominent importance，with portal vein diameter，platelets count，hemoglobin level，and spleen stiffness being the most commonly used risk prediction factors．

目的 探讨降钙素原（PCT）联合营养指标对肝硬化营养状况的评定价值。方法 选取2021年2月—2022年3月在右江民族医学院附属医院感染科住院的140例肝硬化患者,根据营养风险筛查2002（NRS 2002）将其分为有营养风险组和无营养风险组。比较两组肝硬化患者中营养指标体质指数（BMI）、血红蛋白（HGB）、前白蛋白（PA）、白蛋白（ALB）、视黄醇结合蛋白（RBP）水平, 并分析它们与PCT的相关性。结果 BMI、HGB、ALB、PA及RBP水平低于低营养风险组（P<0.05）; 营养指标（BMI、HGB、ALB、PA、RBP）与PCT呈负相关（P<0.05）。二元Logistics回归分析发现ALB、PCT是肝硬化患者营养风险的危险因素（P<0.05）。ROC结果显示PCT与ALB的联合营养指标评定肝硬化营养不良的曲线下面积为0.984,（95%CI：0.964~1.000）, 灵敏度98.8%, 特异度93.3%, 约登指数0.921; ALB、PCT的AUC分别为0.919、0.974。结论 肝硬化患者PCT水平与其营养状况密切相关, 对营养状况的评定有一定的价值, 联合评定能有效提高其评定价值。

Objective To explore the value of procalcitonin（PCT）combined with nutritional indexes in evaluating the nutritional status of liver cirrhosis．Methods A total of 140 patients with cirrhosis admitted to the Department of Infection of the Affiliated Hospital of Youjiang Medical College for Nationalities from February 2021 to March 2022, they were selected and divided into with and without nutritional risk group according to nutritional risk screening 2002（NRS 2002）．The levels of body mass index（BMI）, hemoglobin（HGB）, prealbumin（PA）, albumin（ALB）and retinol binding protein（RBP）in two groups of patients with cirrhosis were compared, and the correlation between them and PCT was analyzed．Results The levels of BMI, HGB, ALB, PA and RBP were lower than those of low nutritional risk group（P<0.05）．The nutritional indices（BMI, HGB, ALB, PA, RBP）were negatively correlated with PCT（P<0.05）．Binary Logistics regression analysis showed that ALB and PCT were risk factors affecting nutritional risk in patients with cirrhosis（P<0.05）．ROC results showed that the area under the curve was 0.984（95% confidence interval：0.964 ~ 1.000）, sensitivity 98.8%, specificity 93.3%, and Yoden index 0.921 for the combined PCT and ALB indexes predicting malnutrition in cirrhosis．The AUC of ALB and PCT were 0.919 and 0.974, respectively．Conclusions The level of PCT in patients with cirrhosis is closely related to their nutritional status, which has certain value in the evaluation of nutritional status, and combined prediction can effectively improve the evaluation value．

目的 分析谷草转氨酶（AST）、胆碱酯酶（CHE）、糖类抗原125（CA125）以及甲胎蛋白（AFP）对肝硬化患者的诊断效能。方法 选择70例肝硬化患者为观察组研究对象,另取70例同期健康体检者为对照组。两组研究对象均接受生化检验、肿瘤标志物检验。对比两组研究对象的AST、CHE、CA125、AFP检测结果,分析上述指标对肝硬化患者的诊断效能。结果 观察组肝硬化患者的CHE低于对照组,AST、CA125与AFP高于对照组（P<0.05）;AST与CHE在肝硬化诊断中具有良好的灵敏度、特异度;CA125联合AFP的灵敏度、特异度、符合率均高于CA125或AFP单独检验（P<0.05）。结论 AST、CHE、CA125、AFP在肝硬化患者临床诊断中具有良好的应用表现,是反映患者肝硬化病情进展的重要参考指标。

Objective To analyze the diagnostic efficacy of aspartate aminotransferase（AST）,cholinesterase（CHE）,carbohydrate antigen 125（CA125）,and alpha fetoprotein（AFP）in patients with liver cirrhosis．Methods A total of 70 patients with liver cirrhosis were included in the observation group as the study subjects,and 70 healthy individuals who underwent physical examinations during the same period were selected as the control group．Both groups of research subjects underwent biochemical testing and tumor marker testing．The AST,CHE,CA125,and AFP detection results of two groups of research subjects were compared,and the diagnostic effect of the above indicators on patients with liver cirrhosis were analyzed．Results The CHE test results of patients with liver cirrhosis in the observation group were significantly lower than those of healthy individuals undergoing physical examination,and the AST,CA125,and AFP test results were higher（P<0.05）．AST and CHE had good sensitivity and specificity in the diagnosis of liver cirrhosis．The sensitivity,specificity and coincidence rate of CA125 combined with AFP were higher than those of CA125 or AFP alone．Conclusions AST,CHE,CA125,and AFP have good clinical application performance in the diagnosis of liver cirrhosis patients,and are important reference indicators reflecting the progression of liver cirrhosis in patients．

目的 探讨白蛋白-胆红素（ALBI）联合中性粒细胞与淋巴细胞比值（NLR）预测肝硬化合并食管胃底静脉曲张破裂出血（EGVB）的临床价值。方法 回顾性分析2021年1月—2022年12月肇庆市第一人民医院消化内科收治的80例肝硬化合并EGVB患者的临床资料,通过电话及门诊、再入院对其进行为期1年的随访,根据随访结果,将其分为2组,即存活组（n=69）与死亡组（n=11）,分析导致患者死亡的危险因素,并评估ALBI联合NLR预测肝硬化合并EGVB患者死亡的临床价值。结果 死亡组的年龄60岁以上、腹水和肝性脑病者占比,总胆红素（TBiL）、NLR、凝血酶原时间（PT）、谷丙转氨酶（ALT）水平及ALBI评分均高于存活组（均P<0.05）,而血红蛋白（HGB）、白蛋白（ALB）及血钠水平均低于存活组（均P<0.05）;Logtisic回归分析显示,年龄60岁以上、腹水、肝性脑病和TBiL、NLR水平升高及ALBI分级为3级是肝硬化合并EGVB患者死亡的危险因素（均P<0.05）;ALBI联合NLR预测肝硬化合并EGVB患者预后的准确率及灵敏度高于单一诊断,漏诊率低于单一诊断（P<0.05）。结论 肝硬化合并EGVB患者可见ALBI评分及NLR水平升高,而以上两种指标是患者死亡的危险因素,将其联合检测可评估患者预后,预测其死亡风险。

Objective To investigate the clinical value of albumin-bilirubin（ALBI）combined with neutrophil lymphocyte ratio（NLR）in predicting liver cirrhosis complicated with esophageal and gastric varices bleeding（EGVB）．Methods The clinical data of 80 patients with liver cirrhosis complicated with EGVB admitted to the Department of Gastroenterology of the First People's Hospital of Zhaoqing from January 2021 to December 2022 were retrospectively analyzed．They were followed up for one year by telephone,outpatient service and readmission．According to the follow-up results,they were divided into the survival group（n=69）and the death group（n=11）．The risk factors leading to the death of patients were analyzed and evaluated．Results The proportion of age over 60,ascites and hepatic encephalopathy,the levels of TBiL,NLR,PT,ALT and ALBI in the death group were higher（P<0.05）,while the levels of HGB,ALB and blood sodium were lower（P<0.05）．Logistics analysis showed that age over 60,ascites,hepatic encephalopathy,NLR and ALBI grade 3 were independent risk factors for the death（P<0.05）．The accuracy and sensitivity of ALBI combined with NLR in predicting their prognosis were significantly higher than that of single diagnosis,and the missed diagnosis rate was lower（P<0.05）．Conclusions ALBI scores and NLR levels significantly increase in patients with liver cirrhosis complicated with EGVB,and the above two indexes are risk factors for the death,and the combination of them can evaluate the prognosis of patients and predict the death risk．

目的 探讨肝脏衰弱程度联合肝功能分级预测肝硬化患者肝病复合不良事件的价值,作为识别和干预不良结局的依据。方法 选择2022年12月—2023年12月医院接收的肝硬化患者80例进行研究,随访6个月观察患者不良事件发生情况,将出现2个及以上肝病并发症的肝病复合不良事件患者25例作为观察组,将出现1个肝病并发症或未出现并发症的患者55例作为对照组,比较两组患者的基本资料、实验室指标、营养指标、体力活动水平、肝脏衰弱指数（LFI）、肝功能Child-Turcotte-Pugh（CTP）评分,采用单因素和多因素Cox回归分析评估肝硬化患者肝病复合不良事件的危险因素,使用受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线下面积评估LFI联合CTP评分预测肝硬化患者肝病复合不良事件的价值。结果 观察组年龄、丙氨酸氨基转移酶（ALT）高于对照组,红细胞计数（RBC）、血红蛋白（Hb）、血肌酐（Scr）、总胆红素（TBIL）、步速、小腿围低于对照组（t分别为4.235、6.500、3.826、3.989、4.289、8.878、2.474,均P<0.05）。观察组营养风险48.00%、LFI≥4.5分52.00%、CTP分级B/C级76.00%高于对照组18.18%、14.55%、27.27%（χ²分别为7.664、12.454、16.699,均P<0.05）。单因素Cox回归分析显示年龄、ALT、营养风险、LFI≥4.5分、CTP分级B/C级、RBC、Scr、TBIL、Hb、步速、小腿围为肝硬化患者发生肝病复合不良事件的危险因素（HR分别为2.251、1.578、1.626、1.981、1.715、1.428、1.443、1.419、1.336、1.332、1.254,均P<0.05）。多因素Cox回归分析显示年龄、营养风险、LFI≥4.5分、CTP分级B/C级为肝硬化患者发生肝病复合不良事件的独立危险因素（HR分别为2.275、1.746、2.025、1.895,P均<0.05）。ROC曲线结果显示LFI、CTP、LFI联合CTP预测肝硬化患者肝病复合不良事件的AUC分别为0.82、0.79、0.88（P<0.05）。结论 年龄、肝脏衰弱、CTP分级B/C级、营养风险为肝硬化患者肝病复合不良事件的危险因素,肝脏衰弱程度联合肝功能分级预测肝硬化患者肝病复合不良事件具有更高的效能。

Objective To explore the value of predicting liver disease complex adverse events in patients with liver cirrhosis by combining the degree of liver frailty with liver function grading,as a basis for identifying and intervening in adverse outcomes．Methods A study was conducted on 80 patients with liver cirrhosis admitted to the hospital from December 2022 to December 2023． Patients were followed up for six months to observe the occurrence of adverse events．Twenty-five patients with liver disease complex adverse events with two or more liver disease complications were selected as the observation group,and 55 patients with one or no liver disease complication were selected as the control group．The basic information,laboratory indicators,nutritional indicators,physical activity levels,liver frailty index（LFI）,Child Turcotte Pugh（CTP）scores,univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis were used to evaluate the risk factors for liver disease complex adverse events in liver cirrhosis patients．The value of combining LFI and CTP score in predicting liver disease complex adverse events in patients with liver cirrhosis was assessed by Receiver Operating Characteristic（ROC）curve area．Results The age,alanine aminotransferase（ALT）,red blood cell count（RBC）,hemoglobin（Hb）,serum creatinine（Scr）,total bilirubin（TBIL）,walking speed,and calf circumference of the observation group were higher than those of the control group（t=4.235,6.500,3.826,3.989,4.289,8.878,2.474,all P<0.05）．The nutritional risk of the observation group was 48.00%,LFI score≥4.5 was 52.00%,CTP grade B/C was 76.00%,which was higher than that of the control group at 18.18%,14.55%,and 27.27%（χ²=7.664,12.454,16.699,all P<0.05）．Univariate Cox regression analysis showed age,ALT,nutritional risk,LFI ≥ 4.5,CTP grade B/C,RBC,Scr,TBIL,Hb,step speed and calf circumference were risk factors for the occurrence of liver disease complex adverse events in patients with liver cirrhosis（HR values=2.251,1.578,1.626,1.981,1.715,1.428,1.443,1.419,1.336,1.332,1.254,all P<0.05）．Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that age,nutritional risk,LFI ≥ 4.5,and CTP grade B/C were independent risk factors for liver disease complex adverse events in patients with liver cirrhosis（HR values=2.275,1.746,2.025,1.895,all P<0.05）．The ROC curve results showed that the AUC of LFI,CTP,and LFI combined with CTP in predicting liver disease composite adverse events in patients with liver cirrhosis were 0.82,0.79,and 0.88,respectively（P<0.05）．Conclusions Age,liver frailty,CTP grade B/C,and nutritional risk are risk factors for liver disease complex adverse events in patients with liver cirrhosis．The combination of LFI and liver function grade has higher efficacy in predicting liver disease complex adverse events in patients with liver cirrhosis．

目的 探讨肝硬化患者临床凝血功能检验中全自动血凝仪测定的应用及临床价值。方法 选取2018年1月—2020年1月我院收治的64例肝硬化患者(肝硬化组),并纳入同期来我院接受健康体检者64例(对照组),应用全自动血凝仪对肝硬化患者临床凝血指标检测。再将肝硬化组患者分为出血组与无出血组,比较对照组与肝硬化组、出血与无出血组、不同肝功能分级患者血小板参数与PT检测结果。结果 与对照组比较,肝硬化组PDW、PT、MPV、INR水平更高,PCT、PLT水平更低(P＜0.05);与肝硬化无出血组比较,肝硬化出血组PDW、PT、MPV、INR水平更高,PCT、PLT水平更低(P＜0.05);与Child-Pugh A级患者比较,肝硬化Child-Pugh B级与C级患者PDW、PT、MPV、INR水平更高,PCT、PLT水平更低(P＜0.05)。结论 在肝硬化患者病情评价中凝血功能检验发挥重要作用,可为患者临床治疗提供有效理论依据,诊断准确率较高,有利于临床治疗措施制定。因此,凝血功能检验应在肝硬化疾病诊断中广泛应用。

Objective To explore the application and clinical value of automatic blood coagulation apparatus in clinical coagulation function test of patients with cirrhosis. Methods A total of 64 patients with cirrhosis admitted to our hospital from January 2018 to January 2020 (cirrhosis group) were selected, and 64 healthy subjects admitted to our hospital during the same period (control group) were included. The clinical coagulation indexes of patients with cirrhosis were detected by automatic blood coagulation apparatus. Patients in cirrhosis group were divided into bleeding group and non-bleeding group; platelet parameters and PT test results were compared between control group and cirrhosis group, bleeding group and non-bleeding group, and patients with different liver function grades. Results Compared with the control group, the levels of PDW, PT, MPV and INR in cirrhosis group were higher, and the levels of PCT and PLT were lower (P＜0.05). Compared with liver cirrhosis non-bleeding group, the levels of PDW, PT, MPV and INR were higher in liver cirrhosis with bleeding group, and the levels of PCT and PLT were lower (P＜0.05). Compared with Child-Pugh A patients, the levels of PDW, PT, MPV and INR in Child-Pugh B and C patients with cirrhosis were higher, and the levels of PCT and PLT were lower (P＜0.05). Conclusion The test of coagulation function plays an important role in the evaluation of patients with cirrhosis, and can provide effective theoretical basis for the clinical treatment of patients with high diagnostic accuracy, which is conducive to the formulation of clinical treatment measures. Therefore, the test of coagulation function should be widely used in the diagnosis of cirrhosis.

目的 探讨替诺福韦酯单药治疗在慢性乙型肝炎(CHB)后肝硬化失代偿期(DCC)治疗中的长期应用价值。方法 随机将84例CHB后DCC患者分为对照组及观察组,每组42例。对照组接受拉米夫定联合阿德福韦酯治疗,观察组接受替诺福韦酯治疗。对比两组12个月内治疗时间内的死亡率及肝癌发生率,并分析两组肝功能、肝硬化指标及Child-Pugh评分变化趋势,同时对比两组治疗过程中HBeAg转阴率、HBV-DNA转阴率及失代偿好转率。此外,对比两组治疗不良反应的发生率。结果 在12个月的治疗时间内,两组死亡率及肝癌发生率比较,差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。而两组治疗过程中ALT、AST、HA、LN、PCⅢ及Child-Pugh评分呈降低趋势,ALB呈升高趋势(P<0.05);治疗6个月及12个月时,治疗组ALT、AST、HA、LN、PCⅢ及Child-Pugh评分低于对照组,ALB高于对照组(P<0.05)。而两组12个月治疗完成后,HBeAg转阴率比较差异无统计学意义,但观察组HBV-DNA转阴率高于对照组(P<0.05)。此外,两组治疗不良反应发生率比较差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论 在CHB后DCC的治疗中,替诺福韦酯单药治疗方案具有良好的长期治疗效果。

Objective To evaluate the long-term value of tenofovir disoproxil monotherapy in the decompensated cirrhosis(DCC) after chronic hepatitis B(CHB). Methods Eighty-four patients with DCC after CHB were randomly divided into control group and observation group, 42 cases in each group. The control group received lamivudine combined with adefovir dipivoxil, and the observation group received tenofovir disoproxil. Mortality and incidence of liver cancer within 12 months of treatment between the two groups were compared, and the change trend of liver function, liver fibrosis index and child-pugh score in the two groups were analyzed. At the same time,we compared the conversion rate of HBeAg, HBV-DNA and decompensated positive rate between the two groups. In addition, the incidence of adverse reactions were compared between the two groups. Results Within 12 months of treatment, there were no statistically significant differences in mortality and liver cancer incidence between the two groups(P>0.05). And during the treatment, the ALT, AST, HA, LN, PC Ⅲ and Child-Pugh score showed a decrease trend, ALB showed a increase trend(P<0.05). After 6-month and 12-month treatment, ALT, AST, HA, LN, PC Ⅲ Child-Pugh score of treatment group were lower than that of control group, ALB was higher than that of control group(P<0.05). After 12 months of treatment, the negative conversion rate of HBV-DNA in the observation group was higher than that of control group(P<0.05). In addition, there was no statistically difference in the incidence of adverse reactions between the two groups(P>0.05). Conclusion Tenofovir disoproxil monotherapy has a good long-term therapeutic effect in the treatment of DCC after CHB.

目的 探讨肝硬化失代偿期患者前列素E2(PGE2)水平对患者感染发生预测价值。方法 选取2016年3月—2017年6月我院收治肝硬化失代偿期患者64例为研究对象,根据患者是否合并有感染分为A组(合并感染,23例)和B组(未合并感染,41例),采用酶联免疫吸附(ELISA)法检测患者PGE2水平,比较两组患者血清PGE2水平,并用ROC曲线预测PGE2在肝硬化失代偿期合并感染价值。结果 A、B两组患者在性别、年龄、白蛋白水平、WBC计数、Child分级、肝硬化病因方面比较均无统计学意义(P＞0.05)。A组患者PGE2水平高于B组[(3 894.6±368.4)pg/mL vs(2 541.8±318.6)pg/mL,P＜0.05]。ROC曲线在肝硬化失代偿期患者合并感染风险曲线下面积为0.86(95%CI为0.75～0.91),有统计学意义(P=0.000 0),当肝硬化失代偿期患者血清PGE2浓度为2 845 pg/mL时,预测肝硬化失代偿期患者合并感染灵敏度和特异度最高,分别为0.831和0.794。结论 肝硬化失代偿期患者PGE2水平显著升高,检测PGE2水平对肝硬化失代偿期患者发生感染有一定预测价值。

目的 评估AMA-M2、SP100和GP210三种自身抗体在诊断原发性胆汁性肝硬化(primary biliary cirrhosis,PBC)中的应用价值。方法 收集我院近3年就诊患者的AMA-M2、SP100、GP210、ALP和GGT检测数据,其中PBC患者50例,非PBC肝胆疾病或自身免疫病患者226例,正常对照290例。分析这些检测指标对PBC诊断的敏感度和特异度。结果 AMA-M2、SP100和GP210诊断原发性胆汁性肝硬化的敏感度分别为96.00%、36.00%、8.00%,特异度分别为98.26%、97.87%、99.03%。PBC组病人的ALP和GGT检测结果高于非PBC病人组。结论 AMA-M2、SP100和GP210对PBC的临床诊断特异度较高;AMA-M2的敏感度高,但SP100和GP210敏感度低。

Objective To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of AMA-M2, SP100 and GP210 for the primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC).Methods A total of 50 patients with PBC and 226 patients with other liver diseases or autoimmune diseases were enrolled in this study and 290 healthy individuals were included as normal controls. The data of AMA-M2, SP100, GP210, ALP and GGT were collected and analyzed for sensitivity and specificity in the diagnosis of PBC.Results The sensitivity and specificity of AMA-M2, SP100 and GP210 in the diagnosis of PBC were 96.00%, 36.00%, 8.00% and 98.26%, 97.87%, 99.03%, respectively. Compared to PBC group, the concentrations of ALP and GGT in non-PBC patients and controls were low.Conclusion AMA-M2 is quite accurate with high specificity and sensitivity in the diagnosis of PBC. However, SP100 and GP210 have high sensitivity but low sensitivity.

       目的   探讨肝脏衰弱程度联合肝功能分级预测肝硬化患者肝病复合不良事件的价值，作为识别和干预不良结局的依据。方法   选择2022年12月—2023年12月医院接收的肝硬化患者80例进行研究，随访6个月观察患者不良事件发生情况，将出现2个及以上肝病并发症的肝病复合不良事件患者25例作为观察组，将出现1个肝病并发症或未出现并发症的患者55例作为对照组，比较两组患者的基本资料、实验室指标、营养指标、体力活动水平、肝脏衰弱指数（LFI）、肝功能Child-Turcotte-Pugh（CTP）评分，采用单因素和多因素Cox回归分析评估肝硬化患者肝病复合不良事件的危险因素，使用受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线下面积评估LFI联合CTP评分预测肝硬化患者肝病复合不良事件的价值。结果   观察组年龄、丙氨酸氨基转移酶（ALT）高于对照组，红细胞计数（RBC）、血红蛋白（Hb）、血肌酐（Scr）、总胆红素（TBIL）、步速、小腿围低于对照组（t分别为4.235、6.500、3.826、3.989、4.289、8.878、2.474，均P＜0.05）。观察组营养风险48.00%、LFI≥4.5分52.00%、CTP分级B/C级76.00%高于对照组18.18%、14.55%、27.27%（χ ² 分别为7.664、12.454、16.699，均P＜0.05）。单因素Cox回归分析显示年龄、ALT、营养风险、LFI≥4.5分、CTP分级B/C级、RBC、Scr、TBIL、Hb、步速、小腿围为肝硬化患者发生肝病复合不良事件的危险因素（HR分别为2.251、1.578、1.626、1.981、1.715、1.428、1.443、1.419、1.336、1.332、1.254，均P＜0.05）。多因素Cox回归分析显示年龄、ALT、营养风险、LFI≥4.5分、CTP分级B/C级为肝硬化患者发生肝病复合不良事件的独立危险因素（HR分别为2.275、1.746、2.025、1.895，P均＜0.05）。ROC曲线结果显示LFI、CTP、LFI联合CTP预测肝硬化患者肝病复合不良事件的AUC分别为0.82、0.79、0.88（P＜0.05）。结论  年龄、肝脏衰弱、CTP分级B/C级、营养风险为肝硬化患者肝病复合不良事件的危险因素，肝脏衰弱程度联合肝功能分级预测肝硬化患者肝病复合不良事件具有更高的效能。

       Objective  To explore the value of predicting liver disease complex adverse events in patients with liver cirrhosis by combining the degree of liver frailty with liver function grading，as a basis for identifying and intervening in adverse outcomes．Methods  A study was conducted on 80 patients with liver cirrhosis admitted to the hospital from December 2022 to December 2023．Patients were followed up for six months to observe the occurrence of adverse events．Twenty-five patients with liver disease complex adverse events with two or more liver disease complications were selected as the observation group，and 55 patients with one or no liver disease complication were selected as the control group．The basic information，laboratory indicators，nutritional indicators，physical activity levels，liver frailty index（LFI），Child Turcotte Pugh（CTP）scores，univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis were used to evaluate the risk factors for liver disease complex adverse events in liver cirrhosis patients．The value of combining LFI and CTP score in predicting liver disease complex adverse events in patients with liver cirrhosis was assessed by Receiver Operating Characteristic （ROC）curve area．Results  The age，alanine aminotransferase（ALT），red blood cell count（RBC），hemoglobin（Hb），serum creatinine（Scr），total bilirubin（TBIL），walking speed，and calf circumference of the observation group were higher than those of the control group（t=4.235，6.500，3.826，3.989，4.289，8.878，2.474，all P＜0.05）．The nutritional risk of the observation group was 48.00%，LFI score≥4.5 was 52.00%，CTP grade B/C was 76.00%，which was higher than that of the control group at 18.18%，14.55%，and 27.27%（χ ² =7.664，12.454，16.699，all P＜0.05）．Univariate Cox regression analysis showed age，nutritional risk，LFI ≥  4.5，CTP grade B/C，RBC，Scr，TBIL，Hb，step speed and calf circumference were  risk factors for the occurrence of liver disease complex adverse events in patients with liver cirrhosis（HR values=2.251，1.578，1.626，1.981，1.715，1.428，1.443，1.419，1.336，1.332，1.254，all P＜0.05）．Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that age，ALT，nutritional risk，LFI ≥ 4.5，and CTP grade B/C were independent risk factors for liver disease complex adverse events in patients with liver cirrhosis（HR values=2.275，1.746，2.025，1.895，all P＜0.05）．The ROC curve results showed that the AUC of LFI，CTP，and LFI combined with CTP in predicting liver disease composite adverse events in patients with liver cirrhosis were 0.82，0.79，and 0.88，respectively（P＜0.05）．Conclusions  Age，liver frailty，CTP grade B/C，and nutritional  risk are  risk factors for liver disease complex adverse events in patients with liver cirrhosis．The combination of LFI and liver function grade has higher efficacy in predicting liver disease complex adverse events in patients with liver cirrhosis．