
表1 训练集和验证集基线特征比较
|
变量 |
总计 (n = 5 564) |
训练集(n = 3 894) |
验证集(n = 1 670) |
统计值 |
P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
年龄/岁(`x±s) |
56.57 ± 12.37 |
56.83 ± 12.42 |
55.96 ± 12.23 |
t=1.117 |
0.267 |
|
婚姻状态[n (%)] |
|
|
|
χ²=1.357 |
0.929 |
|
离婚 |
625 (11.23) |
435 (11.17) |
190 (11.38) |
|
|
|
已婚 |
3 309 (59.47) |
2 316 (59.48) |
993 (59.46) |
|
|
|
分居 |
81 (1.46) |
57 (1.46) |
24 (1.44) |
|
|
|
单身 |
984 (17.69) |
680 (17.46) |
304 (18.20) |
|
|
|
未婚/同居伴侣 |
14 (0.25) |
10 (0.26) |
4 (0.24) |
|
|
|
丧偶 |
551 (9.9) |
396 (10.17) |
155 (9.28) |
|
|
|
侧别[n (%)] |
|
|
|
χ²=0.164 |
0.686 |
|
左侧 |
2 885 (51.85) |
2 026 (52.03) |
859 (51.44) |
|
|
|
右侧 |
2 679 (48.15) |
1 868 (47.97) |
811 (48.56) |
|
|
|
种族[n (%)] |
|
|
|
χ²=1.471 |
0.689 |
|
美洲印第安人/阿拉斯加原住民 |
27 (0.49) |
17 (0.44) |
10 (0.60) |
|
|
|
亚裔/太平洋岛民 |
419 (7.53) |
295 (7.58) |
124 (7.43) |
|
|
|
黑人 |
1 066 (19.16) |
758 (19.47) |
308 (18.44) |
|
|
|
白人 |
4 052 (72.83) |
2 824 (72.52) |
1 228 (73.53) |
|
|
|
AJCCT(美国癌症联合委员会肿瘤大小分期)[n (%)] |
|
|
|
χ²=2.980 |
0.561 |
|
T0/Tis |
3 (0.05) |
1 (0.03) |
2 (0.12) |
|
|
|
T1 |
2 564 (46.08) |
1780 (45.71) |
784 (46.95) |
|
|
|
T2 |
2 368 (42.56) |
1 675 (43.01) |
693 (41.50) |
|
|
|
T3 |
417 (7.49) |
290 (7.45) |
127 (7.60) |
|
|
|
T4 |
212 (3.81) |
148 (3.80) |
64 (3.83) |
|
|
|
AJCCN(美国癌症联合委员会淋巴结分期)[n (%)] |
|
|
|
χ²=4.350 |
0.226 |
|
N0 |
3 769 (67.74) |
2 615 (67.15) |
1154 (69.10) |
|
|
|
N1 |
1 258 (22.61) |
906 (23.27) |
352 (21.08) |
|
|
|
N2 |
326 (5.86) |
232 (5.96) |
94 (5.63) |
|
|
|
N3 |
211 (3.79) |
141 (3.62) |
70 (4.19) |
|
|
|
AJCCM(美国癌症联合委员会转移情况分期)[n (%)] |
|
|
|
— |
1.000 |
|
M0 |
5 563 (99.98) |
3s893 (99.97) |
1 670 (100.00) |
|
|
|
M1 |
1 (0.02) |
1 (0.03) |
0 (0.00) |
|
|
|
骨转移[n (%)] |
|
|
|
- |
1.000 |
|
未发生 |
5 563 (99.98) |
3 893 (99.97) |
1670 (100.00) |
|
|
|
已发生 |
1 (0.02) |
1 (0.03) |
0 (0.00) |
|
|
|
分期[n (%)] |
|
|
|
χ²=0.528 |
0.913 |
|
Ⅰ |
95 (1.71) |
68 (1.75) |
27 (1.62) |
|
|
|
Ⅱ |
1 033 (18.57) |
726 (18.64) |
307 (18.38) |
|
|
|
Ⅲ |
4 389 (78.88) |
3 069 (78.81) |
1 320 (79.04) |
|
|
|
Ⅳ |
47 (0.84) |
31 (0.80) |
16 (0.96) |
|
|
|
是否接受过放疗[n (%)] |
|
|
|
χ²=0.587 |
0.444 |
|
否 |
2 835 (50.95) |
1 971 (50.62) |
864 (51.74) |
|
|
|
是 |
2 729 (49.05) |
1 923 (49.38) |
806 (48.26) |
|
|
|
是否接受过化疗[n (%)] |
|
|
|
χ²=1.293 |
0.255 |
|
否 |
1 240 (22.29) |
884 (22.70) |
356 (21.32) |
|
|
|
是 |
4 324 (77.71) |
3 010 (77.30) |
1 314 (78.68) |
|
|
|
治疗顺序[n (%)] |
|
|
|
— |
0.875 |
|
无系统治疗和(或)手术 |
1 329 (23.89) |
944 (24.24) |
385 (23.05) |
|
|
|
术前系统治疗 |
864 (15.53) |
604 (15.51) |
260 (15.57) |
|
|
|
术后系统治疗 |
2 985 (53.65) |
2 081 (53.44) |
904 (54.13) |
|
|
|
术前术后均进行系统治疗 |
283 (5.09) |
192 (4.93) |
91 (5.45) |
|
|
|
术中系统治疗 |
2 (0.04) |
1 (0.03) |
1 (0.06) |
|
|
|
术中系统治疗及术前/术后其他系统治疗 |
3 (0.05) |
2 (0.05) |
1 (0.06) |
|
|
|
系统治疗前后进行手术 |
98 (1.76) |
70 (1.80) |
28 (1.68) |
|
|
表2 训练集单因素和多因素分析
|
变量 |
β |
S.E |
Z |
P |
HR (95%CI) |
m_β |
m_S.E |
m_Z |
aP |
aHR (95%CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
年龄 |
−0.01 |
0.00 |
−2.48 |
0.013 |
0.99 (0.99 ~0.99) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
婚姻状态 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
已婚 |
|
|
|
|
Ref |
|
|
|
|
|
|
丧偶 |
0.24 |
0.12 |
1.96 |
0.051 |
1.27 (1.00 ~1.62) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
离婚 |
0.16 |
0.12 |
1.32 |
0.187 |
1.17 (0.93 ~ 1.48) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
单身 |
0.24 |
0.10 |
2.42 |
0.016 |
1.27 (1.05 ~ 1.53) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
未婚/同居伴侣 |
−0.32 |
1.00 |
−0.32 |
0.750 |
0.73 (0.10 ~ 5.17) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
分居 |
−0.17 |
0.36 |
−0.47 |
0.639 |
0.85 (0.42 ~ 1.70) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
侧别 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
右侧 |
|
|
|
|
Ref |
|
|
|
|
|
|
左侧 |
−0.03 |
0.07 |
−0.43 |
0.666 |
0.97 (0.84 ~1.12) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
种族 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
白人 |
|
|
|
|
Ref |
|
|
|
|
|
|
黑人 |
0.30 |
0.09 |
3.35 |
<0.001 |
1.34 (1.13 ~1.60) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
亚裔/太平洋岛民 |
−0.15 |
0.16 |
−0.98 |
0.325 |
0.86 (0.63 ~1.17) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
美洲印第安人/阿拉斯加原住民 |
−0.03 |
0.58 |
−0.06 |
0.955 |
0.97 (0.31 ~3.01) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
AJCCT |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
T1 |
|
|
|
|
Ref |
|
|
|
|
Ref |
|
T2 |
0.81 |
0.09 |
8.74 |
<0.001 |
2.24 (1.87 ~2.68) |
0.58 |
0.10 |
6.01 |
<0.001 |
1.79 (1.48 - 2.17) |
|
T3 |
1.59 |
0.12 |
13.08 |
<0.001 |
4.91 (3.87 ~6.23) |
1.16 |
0.13 |
8.71 |
<0.001 |
3.18 (2.45 - 4.12) |
|
T4 |
2.22 |
0.13 |
16.59 |
<0.001 |
9.21 (7.09 ~11.97) |
1.62 |
0.15 |
10.80 |
<0.001 |
5.06 (3.77 - 6.80) |
|
T0/Tis |
−10.96 |
786.71 |
−0.01 |
0.989 |
0.00 (0.00 ~ Inf) |
−12.83 |
1361.93 |
−0.01 |
0.992 |
0.00 (0.00~Inf) |
|
AJCCN |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
N0 |
|
|
|
|
Ref |
|
|
|
|
Ref |
|
N3 |
2.06 |
0.13 |
16.22 |
<0.001 |
7.84 (6.11 ~10.06) |
1.60 |
0.14 |
11.56 |
<0.001 |
4.97 (3.79 ~ 6.53) |
|
N1 |
1.00 |
0.09 |
11.65 |
<0.001 |
2.73 (2.30 ~3.23) |
0.81 |
0.09 |
8.80 |
<0.001 |
2.26 (1.88 ~ 2.71) |
|
N2 |
1.50 |
0.12 |
12.69 |
<0.001 |
4.49 (3.56 ~ 5.66) |
1.26 |
0.13 |
10.06 |
<0.001 |
3.54 (2.76 ~ 4.52) |
|
AJCCM |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
M0 |
|
|
|
|
Ref |
|
|
|
|
Ref |
|
M1 |
5.16 |
1.02 |
5.06 |
<0.001 |
174.94 (23.65~1 293.85) |
3.46 |
1.04 |
3.32 |
<0.001 |
31.86 (4.13 ~245.55) |
|
是否发生骨转移 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
否 |
|
|
|
|
Ref |
|
|
|
|
|
|
是 |
5.16 |
1.02 |
5.06 |
<0.001 |
174.94 (23.65~1 293.85) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Grade |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ⅱ |
|
|
|
|
Ref |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ⅲ |
0.33 |
0.11 |
3.15 |
0.002 |
1.39 (1.13 ~1.71) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ⅳ |
0.55 |
0.39 |
1.41 |
0.157 |
1.74 (0.81 ~3.73) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ⅰ |
−0.50 |
0.42 |
−1.18 |
0.236 |
0.61 (0.27 ~1.38) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
是否接受过放疗 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
否 |
|
|
|
|
Ref |
|
|
|
|
Ref |
|
是 |
−0.04 |
0.07 |
−0.53 |
0.594 |
0.96 (0.83 ~1.11) |
−0.21 |
0.08 |
−2.56 |
0.011 |
0.81 (0.69~ 0.95) |
|
是否接受过化疗 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
否 |
|
|
|
|
Ref |
|
|
|
|
Ref |
|
是 |
0.22 |
0.10 |
2.34 |
0.019 |
1.25 (1.04 ~1.51) |
0.29 |
0.20 |
1.45 |
0.148 |
1.33 (0.90~1.97) |
|
治疗顺序 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
无系统治疗和(或)手术 |
|
|
|
|
Ref |
|
|
|
|
Ref |
|
术后系统治疗 |
−0.12 |
0.10 |
−1.29 |
0.196 |
0.88 (0.73 ~1.07) |
−0.52 |
0.19 |
−2.75 |
0.006 |
0.59 (0.41 ~0.86) |
|
术前系统治疗 |
0.31 |
0.12 |
2.72 |
0.006 |
1.37 (1.09 ~1.71) |
−0.64 |
0.20 |
−3.15 |
0.002 |
0.53 (0.36 ~ 0.79) |
|
术前术后均进行系统治疗 |
0.63 |
0.15 |
4.12 |
<0.001 |
1.87 (1.39 ~2.52) |
−0.37 |
0.23 |
−1.63 |
0.103 |
0.69 (0.44 ~ 1.08) |
|
系统治疗前后进行手术 |
0.06 |
0.29 |
0.20 |
0.842 |
1.06 (0.60~1.86) |
−1.03 |
0.34 |
−3.07 |
0.002 |
0.36 (0.18~ 0.69) |
|
术中系统治疗及术前/术后其他系统治疗 |
0.97 |
1.00 |
0.97 |
0.333 |
2.64 (0.37 ~18.87) |
1.49 |
1.02 |
1.46 |
0.145 |
4.43 (0.60~32.89) |
|
术中系统治疗 |
−12.01 |
850.00 |
−0.01 |
0.989 |
0.00 (0.00 ~Inf) |
−13.59 |
1201.01 |
−0.01 |
0.991 |
0.00 (0.00 ~ Inf) |
