目的 探讨老年吸入性肺炎的危险因素,建立风险预测模型,以期降低老年吸入性肺炎的发病率。方法 选取2017年8月28日—2020年 10月30日广州市第一人民医院老年病科住院治疗的老年肺炎患者205例,按照是否发生吸入性肺炎分为吸入性肺炎组和非吸入性肺炎组,对比2组患者的各项指标,分析老年吸入性肺炎的危险因素,建立风险预测模型,采用ROC曲线对模型进行预测效果检验。结果 多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,脑梗塞、帕金森、留置胃管、长期卧床为老年吸入性肺炎的危险因素(P<0.05)。模型公式为Logit(P)=-2.952+1.221X₂+2.417X₃+2.388X₈+1.683X₁₀。该模型ROC曲线下面积为0.894。结论 本研究中的模型预测效果良好,可为医护人员预测老年患者发生吸入性肺炎的概率,及时采取相应的预见性护理及干预性治疗。

Objective To explore the risk factors of aspiration pneumonia in the elderly and establish the risk prediction model, in order to reduce the incidence of aspiration pneumonia in the elderly. Methods A total of 205 elderly patients with pneumonia who were hospitalized in the department of geriatrics, Guangzhou First People's Hospital from August 28, 2017 to October 30, 2020, were divided into aspiration pneumonia group and non-aspiration pneumonia group according to whether aspiration pneumonia occurred. The indicators of the two groups of patients were compared, the risk factors of aspiration pneumonia in the elderly were analyzed, the risk prediction model was established, and the prediction effect of the model was tested by receiver operating characteristic curve. Results Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that cerebral infarction, Parkinson's disease, indwelling nasogastric tube, and being bedridden were risk factors for aspiration pneumonia in elderly patients (P<0.05). The model formula was Logit (P)=-2.952+1.221X₂+2.417X₃+2.388X₈+1.683X₁₀. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve of this model was 0.894. Conclusion The prediction effect of the model in this study was good, which could predict the probability of aspiration pneumonia in elderly patients for medical staff, and to timely take the corresponding predictive care and interventional treatment.

  目的   基于SEER数据库分析三阴性乳腺癌（TNBC）的预后，并建立Cox回归临床预测模型且进行内部验证。方法   使用SEER*Stat软件（8.4.2版）筛选2010—2015年诊断为TNBC的病例，进行单因素和Cox多因素回归以及向后逐步回归分析，明确与生存相关的独立危险因素，构建预测TNBC患者3年和5年癌症特异生存（CSS）率的Nomogram图，并用受试者工作特征曲线，Harrell’s一致性指数，临床预测模型校准曲线以及决策曲线对该模型进行评估及内部验证，以评估该模型的临床预测效能。结果   共筛选出符合纳入标准的TNBC患者5 564例，按照7∶3的比例随机拆分为训练集（n=3 894）和验证集（n=1 670）。通过单因素，多因素分析显示TNM分期、放射治疗、化学治疗以及手术和其他治疗的先后顺序是与TNBC患者CSS显著相关的独立危险因素（P＜0.05）。利用上述预后相关因素建立Nomogram图模型。训练集的C-index为0.731（95%CI：0.712~0.749），验证集的C-index为0.719（95%CI：0.688~0.749），训练集和验证集3年和5年生存ROC曲线的曲线下面积均＞0.7，区分度较好，且校准曲线拟合良好。结论  TNM分期、放射治疗、化学治疗以及手术和其他治疗的先后顺序是TNBC的独立预后因素，基于此建立的Nomogram图临床预测模型区分度、准确度以及临床适用性较好，能较好地预测TNBC患者的生存预后。

    Objective  To analyze the prognosis of triple negative breast cancer（TNBC）based on the SEER database，and to establish a Cox regression clinical prediction model with internal validation．Methods  Cases diagnosed with TNBC from 2010 to 2015 were screened using SEER*Stat software（version 8.4.2），and univariate and Cox multifactorial  regression as well as backward stepwise regression analyses were performed to identify the independent risk factors associated with survival，and to construct a clinical prediction model for predicting the three- and five-year cancer specific survival（CSV）of TNBC patients．Survival（CSS）rates of TNBC patients at 3 and 5 years，and the model was evaluated and internally validated using the ROC curve，Harrell’s consistency index（C-index），clinical prediction model calibration curve，and decision-making curve（DCA curve）to assess the predictive efficacy of the model for clinical prediction．Results  A total of 5 564 TNBC patients meeting the inclusion criteria were screened and randomly split into a training set（n=3 894）and a validation set（n=1 670）according to a 7∶3 ratio．By univariate，multivariate analysis showed that T-stage，N-stage，M-stage，radiotherapy，chemotherapy，and the sequence of surgery and other treatments were independent risk factors significantly associated with CSS in TNBC patients．The above prognostic-related factors were utilized to build a Nomogram plot model．The C-index was 0.731（95%CI：0.712-0.749）for the training set and 0.719（95%CI：0.688-0.749）for the validation set，and the areas under the curves of the 3- and 5-year survival ROC curves of both the training and validation sets were ＞0.7，which was a good differentiation，and the calibration curves were well-fitted．Conclusions  T-stage，N-stage，M-stage，radiotherapy，chemotherapy，and the  sequence of  surgery and other treatments are independent prognostic factors for TNBC，and the Nomogram clinical prediction model based on this has good differentiation，accuracy，and clinical utility，and can better predict the survival prognosis of TNBC patients．

       目的   基于Nomogram初步构建膝骨关节炎（KOA）患者术前衰弱的风险预测模型。方法   便利选取172例于2021年12月—2022年8月在广州市某三甲医院关节外科接受择期膝关节置换术的KOA患者为研究对象，依据衰弱的发生与否分为衰弱组（n=111）和非衰弱组（n=61），通过单因素分析筛选变量，纳入Logistic回归分析，并构建列线图模型。结果   单因素分析结果显示年龄、BMI、膝关节疼痛年限、合并症、抑郁、焦虑、疼痛、睡眠障碍、营养状况等在不同组间比较差异存在统计学的意义（P＜0.05）。多因素Logistic回归分析表明，BMI异常（OR=3.360）、膝关节疼痛年限＞5年（OR=14.188）、抑郁（OR=5.608）、睡眠障碍（OR=25.480）是KOA患者术前衰弱的独立危险因素（P＜0.05）。基于此，建立了预测膝骨关节炎患者术前衰弱风险的列线图预测模型。结果显示C-index为0.915，校正曲线接近理想曲线，ROC曲线下面积（AUC）为0.919（95%CI：0.878~0.961），可见该预测模型具有较好的区分度和准确度。结论   根据BMI、膝关节疼痛年限、抑郁以及睡眠障碍这四个独立危险因素，可以准确地预测膝骨关节炎患者术前衰弱的风险。

    Objective  To develop a nomogram for predicting the risk of preoperative frailty in knee osteoarthritis patients．Methods  A convenience sample of 172 patients who underwent elective knee arthroplasty at a Grade-A hospital in Guangzhou from December 2021 to August 2022 was selected．The patients were divided into two groups based on the presence of preoperative frailty：frailty group（n=111）and non-frailty group（n=61）．The variables with statistical differences were screened by univariate analysis for multivariate logistic regression analysis，and the nomogram prediction model was established．Results  Univariate analysis identified significant differences between the groups in age，BMI，years of knee pain，complications，depression，anxiety，pain，sleep disturbance，and nutrition（P＜0.05）．Multivariate logistic regression showed that abnormal BMI（OR=3.360），years of knee pain ＞ 5（OR=14.188），depression（OR=5.608），and sleep disorders（OR=25.480）were independent  risk factors for preoperative frailty in knee osteoarthritis patients（P＜0.05）．Based on these findings，a nomogram prediction model was established．Model verification results demonstrated that the nomogram had good differentiation and accuracy in predicting the risk of preoperative frailty，with a C-index of 0.915，an area under the ROC curve of 0.919（95% CI：0.878~0.961），and a calibration curve slope close to 1．Conclusions  The nomogram，based on four independent risk factors（BMI，years of knee pain，depression，and sleep disturbance），effectively predicts the risk of preoperative frailty in knee osteoarthritis patients．