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全球、地区及国家非酒精性脂肪性肝病负担的三十年演变:基于年龄-时期-队列分析

The three-decade evolution of the global,regional,and national burden of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease:an age-period-cohort analysis

:563-574
 
       目的 评估过去30年,204个国家和地区非酒精性脂肪性肝病(NAFLD)伤残调整生命年(DALYs)的变化趋势,以及年龄-时期-队列效应。方法 所有数据来源于全球疾病负担研究(GBD)数据。针对1990—2019年204个国家和地区NAFLD的DALYs趋势进行分析,采用折点回归模型评估年龄标化DALYs率年均百分比变化(APC);同时,利用年龄-时期-队列模型评估年龄、时期及出生队列对NAFLD的DALYs的影响。结果 1990—2019年,NAFLD的DALYs总量增加了62.92%,全人群DALYs率(每10万人)也增加了12.65%,而年龄标化DALYs率则由1990年的63.28(95%UI:48.58,80.86)下降至2019年的53.33(95%UI:40.73,68.29),降幅约为15.72%。全球范围内,APC模型估算的DALYs净漂移为每年-0.88%(95%CI:-0.91~ -0.85)。无论是DALYs总量、全人群DALYs率还是年龄标化DALYs率,其在女性和男性中的变化趋势与总体趋势一致。尽管全球及按社会人口学指数(SDI)分组的5个区域中,≥80岁人群的DALYs时间趋势逐步上升,但仅高SDI区域的上升趋势较为明显。折点回归分析显示,1990—2019年,年龄标化DALYs率呈现“先缓慢上升、后下降、再上升、最终下降”的波动趋势,总体为下降趋势,1990—2019年平均APC为-0.58%。年龄-时期-队列模型表明,全球、各区域及国家均存在不利的年龄效应,而时期效应与出生队列效应在不同区域总体呈有利趋势,但也存在一定差异。结论 1990—2019年,全球NAFLD的DALYs总量和全人群DALYs率上升,而年龄标化DALYs率总体下降,高SDI地区老年人负担上升更明显。年龄-时期-队列分析显示全球普遍存在不利的年龄效应,时期和出生队列效应总体有利但区域差异显著。

      Objective To evaluate the trends in the disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD)and the effects of age-period-cohort in 204 countries and regions in the past 30 years.Methods All data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.Trends in DALYS for NAFLD were assessed in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019,and trends in the annual percentage change(APC)of age-standardized DALY rate were assessed by a joinpoint regression model.And age-period-cohort models were used to assess the effects of age-period-cohort on DALYs for NAFLD.Results From 1990 to 2019,the number of DALYs due to NAFLD increased by 62.92%,and all-age DALY rate per 100,000 population also increased by 12.65%,while the age-standardized DALY rate decreased from 63.28(48.58,80.86)in 1990 to 53.33(40.73,68.29)in 2019,a decrease of about 15.72%.Globally,the APC model estimated a net drift for DALYs of -0.88%(95%CI:-0.91,-0.85)per year,and for the number of DALYs,all-age DALYs rate,age-standardized DALY rate and net drift in female and male,the change trend of all regions over the past 30 years were consistent with the total population.Although the time trend of NAFLD DALYs among people over 80 years old was gradually rising in the world and five regions grouped according to socio‐demographic index(SDI),only the high SDI region had a more obvious time trend.Globally,the joinpoint regression analysis showed the age-standardized DALY rate appeared a trend of first gradually upward and then downward and then upward and finally downward during 1990-2019.Overall there was a downward trend,with an average APC of -0.58 during 1990 to 2019.Age-period-cohort model showed that unfavourable age effects were found in the world,all regions and countries,while the period and birth cohorts effects in different regions were favorable,but there were also some differences.Conclusions From 1990 to 2019,the global DALYs and all-age DALY rates of NAFLD increased,whereas the age-standardized DALY rate showed an overall decline,with a more pronounced burden among older adults in high-SDI regions.The age-period-cohort analysis revealed unfavorable age effects worldwide,while period and birth cohort effects were generally favorable but varied considerably across regions.
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