目的 基于Nomogram初步构建膝骨关节炎（KOA）患者术前衰弱的风险预测模型。方法 便利选取172例于2021年12月—2022年8月在广州市某三甲医院关节外科接受择期膝关节置换术的KOA患者为研究对象，依据衰弱的发生与否分为衰弱组（n=111）和非衰弱组（n=61），通过单因素分析筛选变量，纳入Logistic回归分析，并构建列线图模型。结果 单因素分析结果显示年龄、BMI、膝关节疼痛年限、合并症、抑郁、焦虑、疼痛、睡眠障碍、营养状况等在不同组间比较差异存在统计学的意义（P＜0.05）。多因素Logistic回归分析表明，BMI异常（OR=3.360）、膝关节疼痛年限＞5年（OR=14.188）、抑郁（OR=5.608）、睡眠障碍（OR=25.480）是KOA患者术前衰弱的独立危险因素（P＜0.05）。基于此，建立了预测膝骨关节炎患者术前衰弱风险的列线图预测模型。结果显示C-index为0.915，校正曲线接近理想曲线，ROC曲线下面积（AUC）为0.919（95%CI：0.878~0.961），可见该预测模型具有较好的区分度和准确度。结论 根据BMI、膝关节疼痛年限、抑郁以及睡眠障碍这四个独立危险因素，可以准确地预测膝骨关节炎患者术前衰弱的风险。
Objective To develop a nomogram for predicting the risk of preoperative frailty in knee osteoarthritis patients．Methods A convenience sample of 172 patients who underwent elective knee arthroplasty at a Grade-A hospital in Guangzhou from December 2021 to August 2022 was selected．The patients were divided into two groups based on the presence of preoperative frailty：frailty group（n=111）and non-frailty group（n=61）．The variables with statistical differences were screened by univariate analysis for multivariate logistic regression analysis，and the nomogram prediction model was established．Results Univariate analysis identified significant differences between the groups in age，BMI，years of knee pain，complications，depression，anxiety，pain，sleep disturbance，and nutrition（P＜0.05）．Multivariate logistic regression showed that abnormal BMI（OR=3.360），years of knee pain ＞ 5（OR=14.188），depression（OR=5.608），and sleep disorders（OR=25.480）were independent risk factors for preoperative frailty in knee osteoarthritis patients（P＜0.05）．Based on these findings，a nomogram prediction model was established．Model verification results demonstrated that the nomogram had good differentiation and accuracy in predicting the risk of preoperative frailty，with a C-index of 0.915，an area under the ROC curve of 0.919（95% CI：0.878~0.961），and a calibration curve slope close to 1．Conclusions The nomogram，based on four independent risk factors（BMI，years of knee pain，depression，and sleep disturbance），effectively predicts the risk of preoperative frailty in knee osteoarthritis patients．
