论著

乙型肝炎病毒感染对妊娠期糖尿病孕妇的结局分析

Analysis of outcome in gestational diabetes mellitus pregnant women with hepatitis B virus infection

:11-15
 
目的 探讨慢性乙型肝炎病毒(HBV)感染对妊娠期糖尿病(GDM)孕妇的妊娠并发症、孕晚期生殖道B族链球菌(GBS)感染情况以及妊娠结局的影响。方法 选取2020年1月1日—12月31日在广州市妇女儿童医疗中心定期产检、足月、单胎妊娠的GDM孕妇共583例,其中合并HBV感染者(GDM+HBV组)48例,无合并者(GDM组)535例。比较2组的妊娠期并发症、妊娠晚期(妊娠35~37周)生殖道GBS感染情况、妊娠结局以及阴道分娩者的母儿结局。结果 与GDM组患者相比,GDM+HBV组患者出现妊娠期肝内胆汁淤积症、孕晚期生殖道GBS感染者比例较高,孕期出现胎盘早剥者比例较高,阴道分娩过程中出现产时发热、羊水粪染和新生儿入住NICU者比例均较高(均P<0.05)。结论 与无合并慢性HBV感染的GDM患者相比,合并慢性HBV感染的GDM患者在围产期的母儿风险升高。
Objective To investigate the effects of chronic hepatitis B virus(HBV)infection on pregnancy complications,group B streptococcus(GBS)infection in third trimester and pregnancy outcome in pregnant women with gestational diabetes mellitus(GDM).Methods A retrospective study of 583 pregnant women with GDM,singleton gestation and cephalic presentation delivered at term in Guangzhou Women and Children’s Medical Center was carried out.Including 48 GDM women complicated with chronic HBV infection(GDM+HBV group)and 535 GDM women without HBV infection(GDM group).Pregnancy complications,GBS infection in third trimester(gestation 35-37 weeks),pregnancy outcomes,maternal and neonatal outcomes of vaginal delivery were compared between the two groups.Results GDM+HBV group had a higher proportion of intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy(ICP)and GBS infection in third trimester than GDM group,and a higher proportion of placental abruption during pregnancy.GDM+HBV group showed a significantly increased proportion in intrapartum fever,meconium-stained amniotic fluid and neonatal intensive care unit admission during vaginal delivery than GDM group(all P<0.05).Conclusions GDM women with chronic HBV infection are associated with increased maternal and fetal risk during pregnancy and delivery.
临床诊疗

血清外泌体中GP1BA的表达水平与动脉粥样硬化的相关性分析

:95-100
 
目的 探讨血清外泌体中糖蛋白 Ib 血小板亚基α(GP1BA)的表达水平与动脉粥样硬化的相关性。方法 选取福州市第二医院2022年1月—2023年1月收治的30例心电图提示ST-T改变及冠状动脉造影显示有AS斑块的患者为动脉粥样硬化组;30名健康志愿者为对照组。实时荧光定量(RT-qPCR)法和蛋白质印迹(WB)检测受试人员血清外泌体中GP1BA的表达量,ELISA法检测血清中肿瘤坏死因子α(TNF-α)、白细胞介素-1β(IL-1β)、干扰素-γ(IFN-γ)、高敏心肌肌钙蛋白(hs-cTnT)、血管性血友病因子(vWF)含量。采用Pearson相关系数分析血清外泌体中GP1BA的表达水平与TNF-α、IL-1β、IFN-γ、hs-cTnT、vWF的相关性。结果 动脉粥样硬化组血清外泌体中GP1BA的表达水平高于对照组,血清中TNF-α、IL-1β、IFN-γ、hs-cTnT、vWF含量升高(均P<0.05)。相关性分析发现GP1BA的表达水平与TNF-α、IL-1β、IFN-γ、hs-cTnT、vWF含量均呈较强正相关关系(均P<0.05)。结论 血清外泌体中GP1BA的表达水平与AS存在相关性,并可作为AS的潜在标志物。
论著

MLR联合FT3对HBV相关慢加急性肝衰竭患者生存状况的预测效果

The predictive effect of MLR combined with FT3 on the survival of patients with chronic hepatitis B virus associated acute-on-chronic liver failure

:36-41
 
目的 分析单核细胞-淋巴细胞比率(MLR)联合游离三碘甲腺原氨酸(FT3)对乙型肝炎病毒(HBV)相关慢加急性肝衰竭(ACLF)患者生存状况的预测效果。方法 纳入我院在2019年1月—2022年1月期间收治的HBV-ACLF患者共187例进行研究,随访患者90 d的生存状况,其中69例死亡患者设为死亡组,其余118存活患者设为存活组。对2组患者的各项资料进行单因素分析,对差异有统计学意义的因素行Logistic多因素分析,分析HBV-ACLF患者死亡的危险因素,并分析MLR联合FT3对HBV-ACLF死亡的预测效果。结果 死亡组患者的年龄、肝硬化发生率、原发性腹膜炎发生率、肝肾综合征发生率、电解质紊乱发生率、终末期肝病模型、MLR、中性粒细胞与淋巴细胞计数比值、国际标准化比值、肌酐、白细胞计数、总胆红素水平均高于B组,血钠、FT3、总血清胆固醇水平均低于存活组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。MLR≥0.60、FT3≤2.50 pmol/L均为HBV-ACLF患者死亡的危险因素(P<0.05)。MLR、FT3、MLR+FT3对HBV-ACLF患者死亡均有一定的预测价值,但MLR+FT3的预测价值高于其他单项预测。结论 MLR≥0.60、FT3≤2.50 pmol/L均为HBV-ACLF患者死亡的危险因素(P<0.05),且二者联合应用对HBV-ACLF患者死亡有较佳的预测价值。
Objective To analyze the predictive effect of mononuclear-lymphocyte ratio(MLR)combined with free triiodothyronine(FT3)on the survival of patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure(HBV-ACLF).Methods In the study,187 patients with HBV-ACLF from January 2019 to January 2022 in our hospital were included,and the survival status of the patients was followed up for 90 days.Among them,69 patients were included in the death group and the rest 118 patients were included in the survival group.The data of the two groups of patients were analyzed by univariate analysis,and the statistically significant factors were analyzed by Logistic multifactor analysis.The risk factors of death in patients with HBV-ACLF were analyzed,and the predictive effect of MLR combined with FT3 on the death of HBV-ACLF was analyzed.Results The age,incidence of cirrhosis,primary peritonitis,hepatorenal syndrome,electrolyte disturbance,ratio of neutrophil to lymphocyte count,international standardized ratio,model for end stage liver disease,MLR,creatinine,white blood cell count and total bilirubin of the patients in the death group were higher than those in survival group,and the levels of serum sodium,FT3 and total cholesterol were lower than those in survival group,the differences were significant(P<0.05).The results showed that MLR≥0.60,FT3≤2.50 pmol/L were risk factors for death of HBV-ACLF patients(P<0.05).MLR,FT3,MLR+FT3 had certain predictive value for the death of HBV-ACLF patients,but the predictive value of MLR+FT3 was higher than other single prediction.Conclusions MLR≥0.60 and FT3≤2.50 pmol/L are risk factors for death of patients with HBV-ACLF(P<0.05),and the combination of the two has a better predictive value for death of patients with HBV-ACLF.
论著

不规则抗体筛查阳性患者抗体分布与Rh抗原分布情况研究

Distribution of antibodies and Rh antigens in transfusion patients with positive irregular antibody screening

:13-18
 
目的 研究抗体筛查阳性输血患者的抗体与Rh抗原分布情况。方法 收集2019年10月1日—2022年12月31日中山大学孙逸仙纪念医院34 796例患者的不规则抗体筛查结果,以及抗体筛查阳性患者的抗体鉴定与Rh抗原分型结果,记录34 796例患者的年龄、性别、妊娠史、输血史等基本资料,分析各血型系统不规则抗体产生的阳性率及相关影响因素。结果 34 796例患者中,不规则抗体筛查阳性的患者237例,抗体筛查阳性率为0.68%。共检出不规则抗体260例,其中MNS系统83例(占31.93%),Rh血型系统抗体70例(占26.93%),Lewis血型系统14例(占比5.39%)。同种非特异性抗体79例,阳性率30.38%。同种特异性抗体中抗-E的占比最高,为20.77%;其次是抗-Mia,为20.39%。对237例抗体筛查阳性患者进行Rh抗原分型,CCDee抗原表型占比最高,为52.74%,其次是CcDEe占比29.16%。抗体筛查阳性率与性别、输血史、妊娠史有关,女性、有输血史、有妊娠史者的抗体筛查阳性率较高(P>0.05)。不同科室间抗体筛查阳性率比较差异有统计学意义(P>0.05),其中风湿免疫科与血液科患者阳性率最高。结论 抗-E、抗-Mia为主要的红细胞不规则抗体,不规则抗体的产生与性别、输血史、妊娠史有关,输血前进行不规则抗体筛查、鉴定及Rh抗原分型,有利于提高输血安全。
Objective To explore the distribution of antibodies and Rh antigens in transfusion patients with positive antibodies screened in our hospital.Methods From October 1,2019 to December 31,2022,there were 34,796 patients undergoing irregular antibody screening in Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University,antibody identification and Rh blood typing results of positive patients were collected.Meanwhile,the age,sex,pregnancy history,blood transfusion history and other basic data of 34 796 patients were collected,and the positive rate of irregular antibody production and related influencing factors of blood group system were analyzed.Results Among the 34,796 patients,237 patients were screened positive for irregular antibodies,and the antibody screening positivity rate was 0.68%.A total of 260 cases of irregular antibodies were detected,83 cases of MNS system,accounting for 31.93%;70 cases of Rh blood group system,accounting for 26.93%;14 cases of Lewis blood group system,accounting for 5.39%.There were 79 cases of homozygous non-specific antibodies,with a detection rate of 30.38%.The highest percentage of homo-specific antibodies was anti-E,accounting for 20.77%,followed by anti-Mia,accounting for 20.39%.Rh antigen typing was performed in 237 antibody-screening positive patients,and the highest percentage of CCDee antigen phenotype was 52.74%,followed by CcDEe with 29.16%.Antibody screening positive rate was correlated with gender,blood transfusion history and pregnancy history,and the positive rate was higher in female,patients with blood transfusion history and pregnancy history,and the difference was statistically significant(P>0.05).There were differences in the positive detection rate of antibody-screening in different departments,and the differences were statistically significant(P>0.05),and the highest positive rates were in Department of Rheumatology and Immunology and Hematology.Conclusions Anti-E,anti-Mia are the main erythrocyte irregular antibodies,and the production of irregular antibodies is related to gender,transfusion history and pregnancy history,and irregular antibody screening,identification and Rh antigen typing before transfusion are beneficial to improve transfusion safety.
论著

Ⅲ型食管闭锁术后气管食管瘘复发的高危因素

High-risk factors for recurrent tracheoesophageal fistula after the repair of type Ⅲ esophageal atresia and tracheoesophageal fistula

:81-86
 
目的 统计分析Ⅲ型食管闭锁与食管气管瘘(esophageal atresia and tracheoesophageal fistula,EA-TEF)术后气管食管瘘复发(recurrent tracheoesophageal fistula,RTEF)的高危因素,并计算高危因素预测RTEF的能力。方法 回顾分析2015年9月—2021年1 月我院EA-TEF患儿的临床资料,并根据术后是否气管食管瘘复发分成复发组(recurrent组,R组)及无复发组(not recurrent组,NR组),比较两组患儿的基本情况、开放手术或胸腔镜手术、手术时间、气管食管瘘结扎方式等术中情况,统计分析RTEF的高危因素,分析其预测RTEF的能力。结果 研究期间共纳入Ⅲ型食管闭锁患儿154例,男98例,女56 例,R组11例,NR组143例,单因素对比分析R组与NR组患儿除吻合口瘘外其余均无统计学差异,其中R组吻合口瘘6人,占该组54.55%;NR组13人,占该组9.10%,P<0.001;Logistic回归模型调整后可见有吻合口瘘相对于无吻合口瘘发生RTEF的风险增加12倍(OR=12.000,95%CI:3.216~44.771)。结论 RTEF与患儿基本情况、术中情况无关,与吻合口瘘显著相关,且有吻合口瘘的患儿出现RTEF风险是无吻合口瘘患儿的12倍。
Objective To statistical analyze the high-risk factors of recurrent tracheoesophageal fistula (RTEF) after the repair of type Ⅲ esophageal atresia and tracheoesophageal fistula (EA-TEF),and evaluate the ability of these high-risk factors predicting RTEF. Methods Retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of children with type Ⅲ EA-TEF in our hospital from September 2015 to January 2021. Patients were divided into two groups (recurrent and non-recurrent group,R and NR group) according to whether there was RTEF. The general situation of those patients, situation during surgery like open or thoracoscopic surgery,operation time,method of tracheoesophageal fistula ligation were compared. Those factors of two groups were analyzed, the high-risk factors of RTEF were summarized, and Logistic regression analysis on the high-risk factors was performed to analyze the ability of predicting RTEF. Results A total of 154 infants with type Ⅲ EA-TEF were included in the study, 98 males, 56 females. There were 11 cases in R group, 143 cases in NR group. Univariate comparative analysis was carried out on R group and NR group, and no statistical differences were found except in anastomotic fistula. There were 6 patients in R group with anastomotic fistula, accounting for 54.55%, and 13 patients in NR group, accounting for 9.10%,P< 0.001. After adjusting the Logistic regression model with the high-risk factors, there was 12-fold increase in the risk of RTEF with anastomotic fistula (OR=12.000, 95%CI: 3.216~44.771) compared with no anastomotic fistula. Conclusion RTEF was not related to patients' general situation or surgery situation, but significantly related to anastomotic fistula. Patients who with anastomotic fistula had a 12-fold increase in the risk of RTEF compared with no anastomotic fistula.
论著

厄贝沙坦联合美托洛尔治疗慢性充血性心衰的临床效果及对患者心功能影响

Clinical effect of irbesartan combined with metoprolol in the treatment of chronic congestive heart failure and its influence on cardiac function

:36-39
 
目的 分析厄贝沙坦+美托洛尔治疗慢性充血性心力衰竭(congestive heart failure,CHF)的临床效果及对患者心功能影响。方法 选取本院2018年12月—2020年12月住院治疗的200例慢性CHF患者,根据不同的治疗方法分组,参照组100例患者采用厄贝沙坦治疗,治疗组100例患者采用厄贝沙坦+美托洛尔治疗,比较2组临床疗效、心功能指标、血清炎性因子、血清N端脑利钠肽前体(N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide,NT-proBNP)、同型半胱氨酸(homocysteine,Hcy)水平、不良反应发生率。结果 治疗组临床总有效率(97.00%)高于参照组(87.00%),治疗组治疗后左室射血分数(left ventricular ejection fraction,LVEF)高于参照组,治疗组治疗后左室舒张末期内径(left ventricular end diastolic diameter,LVEDd)、左室收缩末期内径(left ventricular end systolic diameter,LVESd)、血清肿瘤坏死因子-α(tumor necrosis factor-α,TNF-α)、超敏C反应蛋白(hypersensitivity C-reactive protein,hs-CRP)、白细胞介素-6(interleukin-6,IL-6)、NT-proBNP、Hcy水平均低于参照组,差异均具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。治疗组不良反应发生率(4.00%)与参照组(5.00%)比较,P>0.05。结论 厄贝沙坦+美托洛尔可有效改善慢性CHF患者心功能,减轻炎症反应,抑制NT-proBNP、Hcy释放,且不良反应较少。
Objective To analyze the clinical effect of irbesartan combined with metoprolol in the treatment of chronic congestive heart failure (CHF) and its influence on cardiac function. Methods A total of 200 patients with chronic CHF in our hospital from December 2018 to December 2020 were selected and divided into two groups according to different treatment methods. One handred patients in the control group were treated with irbesartan, and 100 patients in the treatment group were treated with irbesartan + metoprolol. The clinical efficacy, cardiac function indexes, serum inflammatory factors, serum NT-proBNP, Hcy levels and adverse reactions of the two groups were compared. Results The total effective rate of the treatment group (97.00%) was higher than that of the control group (87.00%), LVEF of the treatment group was higher than that of the control group, LVEDd, LVESd, serum TNF-α, hs-CRP, IL-6, NT-proBNP, Hcy levels of the treatment group were lower than those of the control group, the differences were statistically significant (P<0.05). The incidence of adverse reactions in the treatment group (4.00%) was higher than that in the control group (5.00%),P>0.05. Conclusion Irbesartan + metoprolol could effectively improve cardiac function, reduce inflammatory reaction, inhibit the release of NT-proBNP and Hcy in patients with chronic CHF, with less adverse reactions.
临床诊疗

补肾活血汤在骨质疏松性股骨颈骨折术后愈合的应用

:95-98
 
目的 探讨补肾活血汤在骨质疏松性股骨颈骨折(FNF)术后愈合的应用效果,旨在为临床治疗提供参考依据。方法 选取濮阳市中医医院2019年1月—2020年1月收治的骨质疏松性FNF患者76例,依据双盲法分为观察组(38例)与对照组(38例),2组均行手术治疗,对照组术后予以常规治疗与康复训练,观察组加用补肾活血汤治疗,以30 d作为1个疗程,持续治疗3个疗程。对比2组临床疗效与术前、术后6个月骨密度值及Harris评分以及术后6个月期间并发症发生情况。结果 相较对照组,观察组临床总有效率较高,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);比较2组术前骨密度值无差异(P>0.05);较术前,术后6个月2组骨密度值均上升,且观察组骨密度值较高,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);2组术前Harris评分对比无差异(P>0.05);较术前,术后6个月2组Harris评分均上升,且观察组Harris评分较高,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);2组并发症发生率对比无差异(P>0.05)。结论 骨质疏松性FNF患者采用补肾活血汤治疗可提升临床疗效,增加骨折处骨密度值并改善髋关节功能,促进术后愈合,值得临床推广。
论著

雾化吸入干扰素-α治疗儿童疱疹性咽峡炎临床疗效评价

Evaluation on the clinical efficacy of interferon-α nebulized inhalation in the treatment of herpetic angina in children

:82-86
 
目的 探讨雾化吸入干扰素-α治疗对儿童疱疹性咽峡炎的治疗效果的影响。方法 本研究纳入2019年1月—2021年1月在清远市妇幼保健院住院治疗的126例疱疹性咽峡炎儿童。所有参与该研究的患儿被随机平均分为2组:对照组(63人)和干预组(63人)。对照组进行常规治疗方案,干预组在对照组基础上雾化吸入干扰素-α治疗。比较2组治疗效果的差异性。结果 干预组患儿平均发热天数(1.86±0.97天)较对照组(2.44±0.89天)低;干预组心肌酶升高比例较对照组低,组间差异有统计学意义(P<0.01)。干预组中显效(50.8%)占主要比例,而对照组中有效(74.6%)占主要比例,并且干预组总有效率(98.4%)高于对照组(96.8%)(P<0.05)。干预组住院天数(5.02±1.85天)较对照组(5.68±1.68天)降低,组间差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论 在常规治疗的基础上加用雾化吸入干扰素-α治疗对提高儿童疱疹性咽峡炎的疗效有促进作用,值得临床推广。
Objective To investigate the effect of nebulized inhalation of interferon-α on the therapeutic effect of herpes angina in children. Methods This study included 126 children with herpetic angina who were hospitalized in Maternal and Child Health Hospital of Qingyuan City from January 2019 to January 2021.All children participating in the study were randomly divided into 2 groups: control group (63 children) and intervention group (63 children). The control group received conventional treatment, and the intervention group was treated with aerosol inhalation of interferon-α on the basis of the control group.The difference of the treatment effect between the two groups were compared. Results The average number of fever days of children in the intervention group (1.86±0.97 days) was lower than that of the control group (2.44±0.89 days); the increase of myocardial enzymes in the intervention group was lower than that of the control group, and the difference was statistically significant (P<0.01). The “obviously effective” (50.8%) in the intervention group accounted for the main proportion, while the “effective” (74.6%) in the control group accounted for the main proportion, and the total effective rate of the intervention group (98.4%) was higher than that of the control group (96.8%,P< 0.05). The length of hospitalization in the intervention group (5.02±1.85 days) was smaller than that of the control group (5.68±1.68 days), and the difference was statistically significant (P<0.05). Conclusion The addition of nebulized interferon-α on the basis of conventional treatment could improve the curative effect of herpetic angina in children, and it is worthy of clinical promotion.
论著

靳三针联合多奈哌齐治疗卒中后认知障碍的研究观察

Observation of Jin's three-needle therapy combined with donepezil in the treatment of post-stroke cognitive impairment

:23-26
 
目的 观察靳三针治疗卒中后认知功能障碍(PSCI)的临床疗效。方法 选取广州市第一人民医院南沙医院中医科、神经内科、精神科卒中后出现认知功能障碍的患者60 例,随机分为治疗1组,治疗2组和对照组,每组20例。对照组予盐酸多奈哌齐片口服,治疗1组予靳三针治疗,治疗2组予多奈哌齐口服及靳三针治疗。各组均在治疗前、治疗12周进行中医症候临床疗效评定和精神状态简易量表(MMSE)评定。结果 MMSE疗效评定中,治疗1组和对照组总有效率相当,治疗2组治疗有效率高于对照组及治疗1组。中医症候疗效评定中,治疗2组愈显率高于对照组及治疗1组,治疗2组愈显率较治疗1组明显升高,对比差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。对照组、治疗1组、治疗2组经过12周治疗后MMSE评分较前升高,治疗前后比较差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05)。3组中风病诊断与疗效评定评分治疗后有所下降,治疗前后比较差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。治疗2组与对照组、治疗1组对比,2组对比差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论 靳三针联合多奈哌齐治疗PSCI效果明显,针刺与药物结合应用治疗更有利于PSCI的恢复。
Objective To observe the clinical effect of Jin's three-needle therapy on post-stroke cognitive impairment (PSCI). Methods A total of 60 patients with cognitive dysfunction after stroke in the department of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM), department of neurology and department of psychiatry in Nansha Hospital of Guangzhou First People's Hospital were randomly divided into treatment group 1, treatment group 2 and control group, 20 cases in each group.The control group was given donepezil hydrochloride orally, the treatment group 1 was given Jin's three-needle therapy, the treatment group 2 was given donepezil oral therapy and Jin's three-needle therapy.All groups were assessed with mini-mental state examination (MMSE) before and 12 weeks after treatment. Results In MMSE, the total effective rate of treatment group 1 was similar to that of control group, and the effective rate of treatment group 2 was higher than that of control group and treatment group 1.In the evaluation of TCM symptom curative effect, the cure rate of the group 2 was higher than that of the control group and the group 1.The effective rate of group 2 was significantly higher than that of group 1 (P< 0.05). After 12 weeks of treatment, MMSE scores in control group, group 1 and group 2 were significantly higher than those before treatment (P< 0.05). The score of diagnosis and curative effect of stroke in three groups decreased after treatment, and the difference was statistically significant (P<0.05). There were significant differences between control group, group 1 and group 2 (P< 0.05). Conclusion Jin's three-needle therapy combined with donepezil is effective in the treatment of PSCI.Acupuncture combined with medicine is more beneficial to the recovery of PSCI.
论著

老年吸入性肺炎的危险因素分析及风险预测模型构建

Analysis of aspiration pneumonia risk factors in elderly patients and risk prediction model construction

:12-16
 
目的 探讨老年吸入性肺炎的危险因素,建立风险预测模型,以期降低老年吸入性肺炎的发病率。方法 选取2017年8月28日—2020年 10月30日广州市第一人民医院老年病科住院治疗的老年肺炎患者205例,按照是否发生吸入性肺炎分为吸入性肺炎组和非吸入性肺炎组,对比2组患者的各项指标,分析老年吸入性肺炎的危险因素,建立风险预测模型,采用ROC曲线对模型进行预测效果检验。结果 多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,脑梗塞、帕金森、留置胃管、长期卧床为老年吸入性肺炎的危险因素(P<0.05)。模型公式为Logit(P)=-2.952+1.221X2+2.417X3+2.388X8+1.683X10。该模型ROC曲线下面积为0.894。结论 本研究中的模型预测效果良好,可为医护人员预测老年患者发生吸入性肺炎的概率,及时采取相应的预见性护理及干预性治疗。
Objective To explore the risk factors of aspiration pneumonia in the elderly and establish the risk prediction model, in order to reduce the incidence of aspiration pneumonia in the elderly. Methods A total of 205 elderly patients with pneumonia who were hospitalized in the department of geriatrics, Guangzhou First People's Hospital from August 28, 2017 to October 30, 2020, were divided into aspiration pneumonia group and non-aspiration pneumonia group according to whether aspiration pneumonia occurred. The indicators of the two groups of patients were compared, the risk factors of aspiration pneumonia in the elderly were analyzed, the risk prediction model was established, and the prediction effect of the model was tested by receiver operating characteristic curve. Results Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that cerebral infarction, Parkinson's disease, indwelling nasogastric tube, and being bedridden were risk factors for aspiration pneumonia in elderly patients (P<0.05). The model formula was Logit (P)=-2.952+1.221X2+2.417X3+2.388X8+1.683X10. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve of this model was 0.894. Conclusion The prediction effect of the model in this study was good, which could predict the probability of aspiration pneumonia in elderly patients for medical staff, and to timely take the corresponding predictive care and interventional treatment.
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