目的   基于决策树构建老年患者吞咽障碍预警模型。方法  采用便利取样法对宁夏银川市宁夏回族自治区人民医院老年科住院的200例老年患者进行调查。结果  200例老年患者中，吞咽障碍发生率为40.5%。依据是否发生吞咽障碍将其患者分为两组，两组患者在性别、年龄、文化程度、职业、医保类型、家庭年收入、日常生活能力、衰弱、抑郁、营养、体质指数（BMI）比较（χ ² 值分别为13.321、4.064、31.944、36.695、18.230、19.681、52.509、10.253、20.456、9.070、9.483），差异均有统计学意义（均P＜0.05）。决策树模型筛选出老年患者吞咽障碍的影响因素主要有自理能力、职业、文化程度和抑郁，决策树模型受试者工作特征曲线下面积为0.862，灵敏度为79.8%，特异度为79.0%，P＜0.001。结论  基于自理能力、职业、文化程度和抑郁构建的决策树模型，能有效预测老年患者吞咽障碍风险。

       Objective  To construct a swallowing disorder warning model for elderly patients based on decision tree．Methods  Convenience  sampling was  used to  study  200  elderly  patients  admitted to the  geriatric  department  of  a tertiary comprehensive hospital in Yinchuan，Ningxia．Results  Among 200 elderly patients，the incidence of swallowing disorders was 40.5%．The two groups of patients were compared in terms of gender，age，education level，occupation，medical insurance type，annual family income，daily living ability，frailty，depression，nutrition，and BMI（χ ²  values were 13.321，4.064，31.944，36.695，18.230，19.681，52.509，10.253，20.456，9.070，9.483，respectively），and the  differences were  statistically significant（all P＜0.05）．The decision tree model identified the main influencing factors of swallowing disorders in elderly patients as self-care ability，occupation，education level，and depression．The Receiver Operating Characteristic curve of the decision tree model had an area under the curve of 0.862，sensitivity of 79.8%，and specificity of 79.0%，P＜0.001．Conclusions  A decision tree model based on self-care ability，occupation，education level，and depression can effectively predict the  risk of swallowing disorders in elderly patients．

目的 对出生缺陷知信行健康教育模式效果进行策略分析与探讨,为进一步完善围产期保健服务及健康教育工作提供合理化建议。方法 采用《孕期妇女出生缺陷基本知识知晓率专题测评问卷》并结合实际情况设定有关信念、行为方面的7个问题,对2011年1月—2013年6月期间在中心孕妇学校参加健康教育活动课堂的孕妇进行调查,并应用决策树模型对中心现有的出生缺陷知信行健康教育模式效果进行探讨。结果 预防出生缺陷知识方面,对初高中及中专文化程度的孕期妇女加强出生缺陷预防知识健康教育的预期收益合计达到51.2%,可作为重点目标人群;预防出生缺陷信念方面,主要决定因素是户籍类型和年龄,加大对本地户籍及25岁以上流动妇女人群的健康教育,促进孕期妇女树立预防出生缺陷信念的预期收益累计达95.9%;预防出生缺陷行为方面,主要影响因素是产检医生的嘱咐,受到嘱咐的孕期妇女预期收益为62.3%。结论 为了达到出生缺陷防治目标与健康教育整体效果的提高,应将预防出生缺陷的健康教育工作重点放在初高中及中专文化程度人群,本地户籍孕期妇女和25岁以上流动性孕期妇女又是需要树立预防出生缺陷信念的重点人群,强化产检医生的嘱托义务是提高孕期妇女出生缺陷知信行健康教育模式效果的有力保证。

Objective To identify factors related to the knowledge, attitude and practice KAP of birth defects prevention among pregnant women, and provide reasonable suggestions to improve perinatal health services and health education. Methods Using cluster sampling method, 5500 participants from pregnant women school were enrolled. Information on “awareness of basic knowledge of birth defects” and 7 questions about attitudes and practice to participant actual situation was gathered through personal interviews using a structured questionnaire. The related factors were analyzed by classification tree model of SPSS 19.0. Results As to birth defects related knowledge, prospective return was more than 50% in the pregnant women with junior, senior high school and technical secondary school education level. As to birth defects prevention faith, the main determinant was census register types; prospective return of pregnant women who were local permanent residents and floating population aged ≥25 years was 95.9%. The main influencing factor of practice was prenatal doctor's education; prospected return was 62.3% after strengthening the health education of prenatal doctor. Conclusion In order to improve birth defects education effect, pregnant women who have junior, senior high school and technical secondary school education level and are local permanent residents or floating population aged ≥25 years should be key targeted population. Prenatal doctor's health education will be a powerful guarantee.