目的 基于决策树构建老年患者吞咽障碍预警模型。方法 采用便利取样法对宁夏银川市宁夏回族自治区人民医院老年科住院的200例老年患者进行调查。结果 200例老年患者中，吞咽障碍发生率为40.5%。依据是否发生吞咽障碍将其患者分为两组，两组患者在性别、年龄、文化程度、职业、医保类型、家庭年收入、日常生活能力、衰弱、抑郁、营养、体质指数（BMI）比较（χ 2 值分别为13.321、4.064、31.944、36.695、18.230、19.681、52.509、10.253、20.456、9.070、9.483），差异均有统计学意义（均P＜0.05）。决策树模型筛选出老年患者吞咽障碍的影响因素主要有自理能力、职业、文化程度和抑郁，决策树模型受试者工作特征曲线下面积为0.862，灵敏度为79.8%，特异度为79.0%，P＜0.001。结论 基于自理能力、职业、文化程度和抑郁构建的决策树模型，能有效预测老年患者吞咽障碍风险。
Objective To construct a swallowing disorder warning model for elderly patients based on decision tree．Methods Convenience sampling was used to study 200 elderly patients admitted to the geriatric department of a tertiary comprehensive hospital in Yinchuan，Ningxia．Results Among 200 elderly patients，the incidence of swallowing disorders was 40.5%．The two groups of patients were compared in terms of gender，age，education level，occupation，medical insurance type，annual family income，daily living ability，frailty，depression，nutrition，and BMI（χ 2 values were 13.321，4.064，31.944，36.695，18.230，19.681，52.509，10.253，20.456，9.070，9.483，respectively），and the differences were statistically significant（all P＜0.05）．The decision tree model identified the main influencing factors of swallowing disorders in elderly patients as self-care ability，occupation，education level，and depression．The Receiver Operating Characteristic curve of the decision tree model had an area under the curve of 0.862，sensitivity of 79.8%，and specificity of 79.0%，P＜0.001．Conclusions A decision tree model based on self-care ability，occupation，education level，and depression can effectively predict the risk of swallowing disorders in elderly patients．
