目的 构建首发脑出血患者并发卒中相关性肺炎的风险预测模型并验证模型的预测性能。方法 回顾性分析2012年1月—2022年12月广州市第一人民医院治的419例首发脑出血患者的临床资料，按照7︰3比例随机化分为训练列（293例）和验证队列（126例）。统计基于开发队列数据，采用Logistic回归模型分析首发脑出血患者并发卒中相关性肺炎的影响因素，并构建风险预测模型。基于开发队列和验证队列数据，采用校准曲线、受试者操作特征（ROC）曲线下面积和决策曲线分析模型的预测性能。结果 419例首发脑出血患者中有113例发生卒中相关性肺炎，发生率为26.97%。美国国立卫生研究院卒中量表（NIHSS）评分、吞咽困难、初始血肿体积、中性粒细胞百分比与白蛋白比值（NPAR）、中性粒细胞计数与淋巴细胞计数比值（NLR）、手术治疗、气管插管、留置胃管均是首发脑出血患者并发卒中相关性肺炎的影响因素（P＜0.05）。基于上述影响因素构建了首发脑出血患者并发卒中相关性肺炎的风险预警模型，校准曲线显示模型在开发队列和验证队列中预测卒中相关性肺炎发生率均与实际发生率相近；ROC曲线显示此模型在开发队列、验证队列中预测的曲线下面积分别为0.906（95%CI：0.867~0.937）、0.884（95%CI：0.815~0.934）；决策曲线分析显示当开发队列阈概率在3%~80%内、验证队列阈概率在2%~76%内使用此模型干预比全/无干预更有临床价值。结论 基于NIHSS评分、吞咽困难、初始血肿体积、NPAR、NLR、手术治疗、气管插管、留置胃管构建的首发脑出血患者并发卒中相关性肺炎的风险预测模型具有良好预测性能和临床应用价值。

      Objective To construct a risk prediction model for stroke associated pneumonia in patients with initial cerebral hemorrhage（ICH）and validate the predictive performance of the model．Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of 419 patients with ICH admitted to our hospital from January 2012 to December 2022．They were randomly divided into a development cohort（293 cases）and a validation cohort（126 cases）according to a 7∶3 ratio．The Logistic regression model was used to analyze the influencing factors of stroke related pneumonia in patients with ICH based on the development cohort data，and a risk prediction model was constructed．Based on the development cohort data and validation cohort data，the predictive performance of the model was analyzed using calibration curves，receiver operating characteristic（ROC）curve，and decision curve analysis．Results Among 419 patients，113 developed stroke associated pneumonia，with a rate of 26.97%．The National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale（NIHSS）score，swallowing difficulties，initial hematoma volume，neutrophil percentage to albumin ratio（NPAR），neutrophil count to lymphocyte count ratio（NLR），surgical treatment，endotracheal intubation，and indwelling gastric tube were all independent influencing factors for stroke associated pneumonia in patients with ICH（P＜0.05）．Based on the above influencing factors，a risk prediction model for stroke associated pneumonia in patients with ICH was constructed．The calibration curve showed that the predicted incidence of stroke associated pneumonia by the model in both the development and validation cohorts was close to the actual incidence．The ROC curve showed that the predicted area under the curve for this model in the development cohort and validation cohort was 0.906（95%CI：0.867-0.937）and 0.884（95%CI：0.815-0.934），respectively．The decision curve analysis showed that when the threshold probability of the development cohort was between 3%-80%，and the threshold probability of the validation cohort was between 2%-76%，the intervention using this model was more clinically valuable than all/no intervention．

Conclusions The risk prediction model for stroke associated pneumonia in patients with ICH based on NIHSS score，swallowing difficulties，initial hematoma volume，NPAR，NLR，surgical treatment，tracheal intubation，and indwelling gastric tube has good predictive performance and clinical application value．

目的 探讨脑卒中患者应用NNN-链接延续护理模式对患者生活质量及护理结局影响。方法 将 2019年6月—2020年12月收治的60例患者按纳入研究对象,以NNN-链接为结构框架,从入院到出院后3个月实施NNN-链接延续护理模式,收集延续护理患者护理诊断、护理结局、护理措施及三者的链接,比较延续护理不同阶段脑卒中患者护理结局评分。结果 使用频率最高的护理诊断及NNN-链接分别为生活自理能力缺陷、有跌倒的危险、知识缺乏、营养失调:低于机体需要量、有误吸危险;出院后3个月,从功能健康、健康知识和行为、生理健康Ⅱ、心理社会健康、家庭健康5大领域进行护理结局评分,分值均比出院时第一个月有提高(P<0.05)。结论 NNN-链接延续护理模式能有效提高病人的健康知识与行为,提高照顾者照护能力,降低意外事件发生。

目的 探讨健康教育路径联合集束化护理模式在预防脑卒中患者便秘的效果观察。方法 随机选择神经外科收治的脑卒中患者120例,分为实验组与对照组,各60例,其中对照组给予常规护理,而实验组在常规护理基础上应用健康教育路径联合集束化护理模式。比较两组患者便秘发生率、便秘措施落实率、患者满意度、及患者入院前后的健康教育知识知晓率的比较。结果 实验组便秘发生率明显低于对照组,便秘护理评估率,护理措施落实率,病人满意度明显高于观察组,患者入院后的健康教育知识知晓率明显升高(P<0.05),具有统计学意义。结论 健康教育路径联合集束化护理模式能有效的降低脑卒中患者便秘发生率,提高预防便秘发生护理措施落实率,提高患者满意度,提高患者舒适度。