目的 探究前瞻性护理对老年吸入性肺炎的影响和作用。方法 选择2017年8月—2018年12月住院采取常规护理的94例老年患者作为对照组,选择2019年1月—2020年10月住院的114例老年患者作为观察组进行前瞻性护理,比较对照组和观察组吸入性肺炎的发病率。结果 观察组吸入性肺炎发病率低于对照组（P<0.05）。结论 前瞻性护理可及早筛选并识别老年患者发生吸入性肺炎的危险因素,依此采取相应的护理措施,降低吸入性肺炎的发病率。

Objective To explore the effect of prospective nursing on preventing aspiration pneumonia in elderly patients．Methods A total of 94 elderly patients who were hospitalized from August 2017 to December 2018 and received routine care were selected as the control group,and 114 elderly patients who were hospitalized from January 2019 to October 2020 were selected as the observation group for prospective care,and the incidence of aspiration pneumonia in the control group and the observation group were compared．Results The incidence of aspiration pneumonia in the observation group was lower than that in the control group（P<0.05）．Conclusions Prospective nursing can identify risk factors of aspiration pneumonia in elderly patients,and take appropriate nursing measures to reduce the incidence of aspiration pneumonia．

目的 探讨老年吸入性肺炎的危险因素,建立风险预测模型,以期降低老年吸入性肺炎的发病率。方法 选取2017年8月28日—2020年 10月30日广州市第一人民医院老年病科住院治疗的老年肺炎患者205例,按照是否发生吸入性肺炎分为吸入性肺炎组和非吸入性肺炎组,对比2组患者的各项指标,分析老年吸入性肺炎的危险因素,建立风险预测模型,采用ROC曲线对模型进行预测效果检验。结果 多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,脑梗塞、帕金森、留置胃管、长期卧床为老年吸入性肺炎的危险因素(P<0.05)。模型公式为Logit(P)=-2.952+1.221X₂+2.417X₃+2.388X₈+1.683X₁₀。该模型ROC曲线下面积为0.894。结论 本研究中的模型预测效果良好,可为医护人员预测老年患者发生吸入性肺炎的概率,及时采取相应的预见性护理及干预性治疗。

Objective To explore the risk factors of aspiration pneumonia in the elderly and establish the risk prediction model, in order to reduce the incidence of aspiration pneumonia in the elderly. Methods A total of 205 elderly patients with pneumonia who were hospitalized in the department of geriatrics, Guangzhou First People's Hospital from August 28, 2017 to October 30, 2020, were divided into aspiration pneumonia group and non-aspiration pneumonia group according to whether aspiration pneumonia occurred. The indicators of the two groups of patients were compared, the risk factors of aspiration pneumonia in the elderly were analyzed, the risk prediction model was established, and the prediction effect of the model was tested by receiver operating characteristic curve. Results Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that cerebral infarction, Parkinson's disease, indwelling nasogastric tube, and being bedridden were risk factors for aspiration pneumonia in elderly patients (P<0.05). The model formula was Logit (P)=-2.952+1.221X₂+2.417X₃+2.388X₈+1.683X₁₀. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve of this model was 0.894. Conclusion The prediction effect of the model in this study was good, which could predict the probability of aspiration pneumonia in elderly patients for medical staff, and to timely take the corresponding predictive care and interventional treatment.