SEER数据库中晚期三阴性乳腺癌的危险因素及预后分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-8535.2021.01.006

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的分析晚期三阴性乳腺癌(TNBC)的危险因素并建立有效的预后列线图。方法通过检索美国SEER(surveillance, epidemiology, and end results)数据库筛选晚期TNBC患者,采用单因素和多因素分析来确定晚期TNBC的独立预后因素,并以此构建了列线图,通过校准曲线检验和C指数(C-index)评估已建立的列线图。结果共纳入4 687例晚期TNBC患者,与同期其他分子分型的乳腺癌相比较,TNBC的预后最差。单因素分析发现,年龄、性别、分期、手术、化疗、放疗、转移与更好的预后相关(P<0.05)。多因素分析发现年龄、性别、种族、分期、手术、化疗、放疗、各器官转移是患者预后的独立影响因素(P<0.05),并以此构建了列线图,其C-index为0.75(95％CI,0.71～0.79),校准图显示了预测的总生存期(OS)与观察到的OS之间的最佳一致性。结论我们分析了晚期TNBC的临床特征,为TNBC患者的OS提供了一些预后因素,并根据这些预后因素制定了列线图,帮助临床医生进行风险管理并选择TNBC患者的长期生存策略。

关键词: 晚期三阴性乳腺癌, 列线图, SEER数据库, 生存分析

Abstract: Objective To analyze the risk factors of advanced triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) and establish an effective prognostic nomogram. Methods Screening patients with advanced TNBC by searching the SEER (surveillance, epidemiology, and end results) database, using univariate and multivariate analysis to determine the independent prognostic factors of advanced TNBC, and constructing a nomogram based on it. Results A total of 4 687 patients with advanced TNBC were included. Compared with other types of breast cancer over the same period, TNBC had the worst prognosis. Univariate analysis found that age, gender, stage, surgery, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, and metastasis were associated with a better prognosis (P<0.05). Multivariate analysis found that age, gender, race, stage, surgery, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, and metastasis of the organs were independent factors affecting the prognosis of patients (P<0.05), and constructed a nomogram with a C-index of 0.75 ( 95% CI, 0.71～0.79). The calibration chart showed the best agreement between the predicted overall survival (OS) and the observed OS. Conclusion We analyzed the clinical features of advanced TNBC, provided some prognostic factors for the OS of TNBC patients, and developed a nomogram based on these prognostic factors to help clinicians manage risk and choose long-term survival strategies for TNBC patients.

Key words: Triple negative breast cancer, Nomogram, SEER database, Survival analysis

叶晔, 费伟强, 冯冠. SEER数据库中晚期三阴性乳腺癌的危险因素及预后分析[J]. 广州医药, 2021, 52(1): 26-34.

YE Ye, FEI Weiqiang, FENG Guan. Analysis of risk factors and prognosis of advanced triple negative breast cancer based on SEER database[J]. Guangzhou Medical Journal, 2021, 52(1): 26-34.

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