关键词: 肝硬化, 肝病复合不良事件, 肝脏衰弱指数, 肝功能分级, 危险因素

Abstract: Objective To explore the value of predicting liver disease complex adverse events in patients with liver cirrhosis by combining the degree of liver frailty with liver function grading,as a basis for identifying and intervening in adverse outcomes．Methods A study was conducted on 80 patients with liver cirrhosis admitted to the hospital from December 2022 to December 2023． Patients were followed up for six months to observe the occurrence of adverse events．Twenty-five patients with liver disease complex adverse events with two or more liver disease complications were selected as the observation group,and 55 patients with one or no liver disease complication were selected as the control group．The basic information,laboratory indicators,nutritional indicators,physical activity levels,liver frailty index（LFI）,Child Turcotte Pugh（CTP）scores,univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis were used to evaluate the risk factors for liver disease complex adverse events in liver cirrhosis patients．The value of combining LFI and CTP score in predicting liver disease complex adverse events in patients with liver cirrhosis was assessed by Receiver Operating Characteristic（ROC）curve area．Results The age,alanine aminotransferase（ALT）,red blood cell count（RBC）,hemoglobin（Hb）,serum creatinine（Scr）,total bilirubin（TBIL）,walking speed,and calf circumference of the observation group were higher than those of the control group（t=4.235,6.500,3.826,3.989,4.289,8.878,2.474,all P<0.05）．The nutritional risk of the observation group was 48.00%,LFI score≥4.5 was 52.00%,CTP grade B/C was 76.00%,which was higher than that of the control group at 18.18%,14.55%,and 27.27%（χ²=7.664,12.454,16.699,all P<0.05）．Univariate Cox regression analysis showed age,ALT,nutritional risk,LFI ≥ 4.5,CTP grade B/C,RBC,Scr,TBIL,Hb,step speed and calf circumference were risk factors for the occurrence of liver disease complex adverse events in patients with liver cirrhosis（HR values=2.251,1.578,1.626,1.981,1.715,1.428,1.443,1.419,1.336,1.332,1.254,all P<0.05）．Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that age,nutritional risk,LFI ≥ 4.5,and CTP grade B/C were independent risk factors for liver disease complex adverse events in patients with liver cirrhosis（HR values=2.275,1.746,2.025,1.895,all P<0.05）．The ROC curve results showed that the AUC of LFI,CTP,and LFI combined with CTP in predicting liver disease composite adverse events in patients with liver cirrhosis were 0.82,0.79,and 0.88,respectively（P<0.05）．Conclusions Age,liver frailty,CTP grade B/C,and nutritional risk are risk factors for liver disease complex adverse events in patients with liver cirrhosis．The combination of LFI and liver function grade has higher efficacy in predicting liver disease complex adverse events in patients with liver cirrhosis．

Key words: liver cirrhosis, complex adverse events of liver disease, Liver Frailty Index, liver function grading, risk factors