关键词: 膝骨关节炎, 术前衰弱, 危险因素, 列线图

Abstract: Objective To develop a nomogram for predicting the risk of preoperative frailty in knee osteoarthritis patients. Methods A convenience sample of 172 patients who underwent elective knee arthroplasty at a Grade-A hospital in Guangzhou from December 2021 to August 2022 was selected．The patients were divided into two groups based on the presence of preoperative frailty：frailty group（n=111）and non-frailty group（n=61）．The variables with statistical differences were screened by univariate analysis for multivariate logistic regression analysis,and the nomogram prediction model was established. Results Univariate analysis identified significant differences between the groups in age,BMI,years of knee pain,complications,depression,anxiety,pain,sleep disturbance,and nutrition（P<0.05）．Multivariate logistic regression showed that abnormal BMI（OR=3.360）,years of knee pain > 5（OR=14.188）,depression（OR=5.608）,and sleep disorders（OR=25.480）were independent risk factors for preoperative frailty in knee osteoarthritis patients（P<0.05）．Based on these findings,a nomogram prediction model was established．Model verification results demonstrated that the nomogram had good differentiation and accuracy in predicting the risk of preoperative frailty,with a C-index of 0.915,an area under the ROC curve of 0.919（95% CI：0.878~0.961）,and a calibration curve slope close to 1. Conclusions The nomogram,based on four independent risk factors（BMI,years of knee pain,depression,and sleep disturbance）,effectively predicts the risk of preoperative frailty in knee osteoarthritis patients．

Key words: knee osteoarthritis, preoperative frailty, risk factors, nomogram